Lloyds Banking Group (LYG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$5.21
+0.04 (+0.77%)
▲
5d:
+2.36%
30d:
-4.75%
90d:
-15.28%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
66/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$5.17 – $5.48
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.9x
FAIR
vs 9.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$6.28
+20.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$4.97 / $5.30
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: LYG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.07
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LYG is currently trading at $5.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.17 to $5.48. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 164.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LYG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LYG scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.28 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LYG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: LYG scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.28 (+20.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5.17 -
$5.48
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5.17 -
$5.48
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$4.97
Resistance Level
$5.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.5% below Wall St target ($6.28)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.85
Wall Street Target
$6.28
(+20.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
164.7%
Profit Margin
30.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.17
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$5.14
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$5.10
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$5.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 7.9%)
$14.69
(+182%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 7.9%)
$6.55
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 7.9%)
$5.56
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$6.45
(+24%)
Analyst growth 13.2%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case
$5.86
(+13%)
Market implied 13.2%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$3.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.9 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$5.30
(+1.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (LYG)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Jul 5, 2023
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on LYG are bearish (sentiment score +0.00) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LYG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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