Mativ (MATV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MATV - Mativ Holdings, Inc.
$12.25
0.51 (4.34%)
▲
5d:
+4.97%
30d:
-0.33%
90d:
+50.86%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MATV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MATV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.45
8.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MATV is currently trading at $12.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.54 to $12.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MATV scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+71.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: MATV scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+71.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.54 -
$12.17
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 71.4% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.54 -
$12.17
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.15
Resistance Level
$12.37
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.80
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+71.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6447.8%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.63
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$13.02
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$13.42
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$12.19
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$53.13
(+334%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 28.9%)
$26.22
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.3, Growth: 28.9%)
$22.28
(+82%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.64
Bull Case
$9.84
(-20%)
Analyst growth -23.8%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$8.95
(-27%)
Market implied -23.8%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$7.98
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MATV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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