Mativ (MATV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MATV - Mativ Holdings, Inc.
$11.90
0.25 (2.15%)
▲
5d:
-0.17%
30d:
-4.65%
90d:
+59.52%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MATV is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MATV is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.45
11.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MATV is currently trading at $11.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.85 to $12.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.13, while resistance sits at $12.74.
Market Sentiment: MATV scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+76.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.13, while resistance sits at $12.74.
Market Sentiment: MATV scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+76.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.85 -
$12.42
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 76.5% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 19% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.85 -
$12.42
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.13
Resistance Level
$12.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.52
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+76.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6447.8%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.16
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$12.43
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$12.70
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 28.9%)
$54.57
(+359%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 28.9%)
$25.47
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 28.9%)
$21.65
(+82%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.62
Bull Case
$9.89
(-17%)
Analyst growth -22.8%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$8.99
(-25%)
Market implied -22.8%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$7.92
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MATV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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