Mativ (MATV) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MATV - Mativ Holdings, Inc.
$11.60
-0.26 (-2.19%)
▼
5d:
-2.52%
30d:
-5.92%
90d:
+49.1%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MATV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MATV shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.66
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.45
13.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MATV is currently trading at $11.60, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.78 to $12.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.3) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.13, while resistance sits at $12.36.
Market Sentiment: MATV scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+81.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MATV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.13, while resistance sits at $12.36.
Market Sentiment: MATV scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+81.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.78 -
$12.39
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 81.0% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.78 -
$12.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.13
Resistance Level
$12.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.28
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+81.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6447.8%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.75
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$11.90
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$12.06
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$53.13
(+358%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: 28.9%)
$24.82
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$21.10
(+82%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.64
Bull Case
$9.94
(-14%)
Analyst growth -23.8%, PE expands to 8.0
Base Case
$9.04
(-22%)
Market implied -23.8%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$8.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 10, 2026 6:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MATV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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