MDU Resources Group (MDU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$19.37
0.25 (1.31%)
▲
5d:
+4.08%
30d:
+5.33%
90d:
-8.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MDU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.86
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.30
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $19.37, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.52 to $18.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.3) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDU scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.40. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MDU scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$18.52 -
$18.88
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.52 -
$18.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.35
Resistance Level
$19.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.26
Wall Street Target
$23.00
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.3 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.94
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$18.53
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$18.12
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$19.35
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.3%)
$26.78
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.3, Growth: 8.3%)
$24.63
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.5, Growth: 8.3%)
$20.93
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.94
Bull Case
$23.71
(+24%)
Analyst growth 12.8%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$21.55
(+13%)
Market implied 12.8%, PE stable at 20.3
Bear Case
$12.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.3 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$20.68
(+6.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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