MDU Resources Group (MDU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$18.61
0.14 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
-0.8%
30d:
-6.06%
90d:
-8.64%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MDU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MDU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.15
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.48
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $18.61, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.56 to $19.83. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (19.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.62 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.24. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.62 (+27.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$18.56 -
$19.83
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.9% below Wall St target ($23.62)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.56 -
$19.83
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.24
Resistance Level
$18.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.41
Wall Street Target
$23.63
(+27.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 19.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.73
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$17.02
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$16.34
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→20)
$18.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$27.52
(+49%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$23.49
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.8, Growth: 8.3%)
$19.97
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.94
Bull Case
$23.01
(+25%)
Analyst growth 12.9%, PE expands to 21.7
Base Case
$20.92
(+13%)
Market implied 12.9%, PE stable at 19.7
Bear Case
$12.61
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.4 to 19.7
Stabilization Target:
$20.90
(+13.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 3:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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