MDU Resources Group (MDU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDU - MDU Resources Group, Inc.
$19.20
-0.04 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
-2.69%
30d:
-6.43%
90d:
-8.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MDU shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.42
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $19.20, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.70 to $20.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.1) is in line with its historical norms (19.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 47.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.62 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $19.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MDU scores 16/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.62 (+23.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$19.70 -
$20.49
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (16/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.0% below Wall St target ($23.62)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.70 -
$20.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.09
Resistance Level
$20.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.11
Wall Street Target
$23.63
(+23.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.2%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.1 vs 19.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.62
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$18.07
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$17.52
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→20)
$19.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 8.3%)
$27.13
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.1, Growth: 8.3%)
$24.36
(+27%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.4, Growth: 8.3%)
$20.71
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.92
Bull Case
$24.39
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$22.17
(+16%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$13.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.1 to 19.9
Stabilization Target:
$21.10
(+9.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 11:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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