MDU
MDU Resources Group, Inc.
MINING & QUARRYING OF NONMETALLIC MINERALS (NO FUELS)
MDU Resources Group (MDU) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$19.44
+0.16 (+0.83%)
â˛
5d:
-1.92%
30d:
+4.29%
90d:
-4.19%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (63%)
Quality Score
48/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$18.71 â $19.54
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
18.4x
FAIR
vs 19.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$23.00
+18.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$18.14 / $19.96
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MDU is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.83
Based on 6.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDU is currently trading at $19.44, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.71 to $19.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.4) is in line with its historical norms (19.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+18.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDU is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.96. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.00 (+18.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$18.71 -
$19.54
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$18.71 -
$19.54
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$18.14
Resistance Level
$19.96
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($23.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.39
Wall Street Target
$23.00
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.6%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 19.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.07
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$18.71
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$18.35
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18â20)
$19.46
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 8.4%)
$26.76
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 8.4%)
$24.78
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 8.4%)
$21.07
(+8%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.91
Bull Case
$24.64
(+27%)
Analyst growth 16.2%, PE expands to 23.3
Base Case
$22.40
(+15%)
Market implied 16.2%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$13.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 19.5
Stabilization Target:
$20.61
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MDU)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Aug 2, 2024
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on MDU are bullish (sentiment score +0.20) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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