MiMedx Group (MDXG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MDXG - MiMedx Group, Inc
$4.59
-0.05 (-1.08%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.71%
30d:
+0.88%
90d:
+12.78%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MDXG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MDXG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -4.9% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.01
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MDXG is currently trading at $4.59, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.50 to $4.75. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (26.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 99.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDXG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.40, while resistance sits at $4.99.
Market Sentiment: MDXG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.40 (+61.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MDXG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.40, while resistance sits at $4.99.
Market Sentiment: MDXG scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.40 (+61.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.50 -
$4.75
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.2% below Wall St target ($7.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.50 -
$4.75
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.32
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.40
Resistance Level
$4.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.95
Wall Street Target
$7.40
(+61.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
99.5%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.0 vs 26.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.37
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$4.15
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$3.95
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â27)
$4.59
(+0%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 19.53 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.24
Bull Case
$5.54
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 20.5
Base Case
$4.59
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 19.5
Bear Case
$3.51
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.9 to 26.7
Stabilization Target:
$5.34
(+16.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MDXG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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