MFA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFA - MFA Financial, Inc
$9.42
0.06 (0.64%)
▲
5d:
+0.75%
30d:
-0.84%
90d:
-3.38%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.61
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.69
2.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFA is currently trading at $9.42, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.27 to $9.52. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.4) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.08 (+49.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.68. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.08 (+49.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.27 -
$9.52
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 49.5% below Wall St target ($14.08)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.27 -
$9.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.11
Resistance Level
$9.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.38
Wall Street Target
$14.08
(+49.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-46.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.4%
Profit Margin
46.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.22
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.03
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$8.84
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$9.42
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 14.6%)
$48.43
(+414%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 14.6%)
$14.19
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 14.6%)
$12.06
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.88
Bull Case
$17.58
(+88%)
Analyst growth 67.7%, PE expands to 11.9
Base Case
$15.99
(+71%)
Market implied 67.7%, PE stable at 10.8
Bear Case
$6.48
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$10.04
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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