MFA Financial (MFA) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFA - MFA Financial, Inc
$8.56
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-3.49%
30d:
-6.45%
90d:
-7.86%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Get Alerted When MFA Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.33
24.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFA is currently trading at $8.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.77 to $9.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 61.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFA scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+63.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFA is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFA scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+63.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.77 -
$9.13
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 63.6% below Wall St target ($14.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.77 -
$9.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.53
Resistance Level
$8.99
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.12
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+63.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
61.9%
Profit Margin
48.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.31
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$8.07
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$7.84
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$8.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 29.4%)
$61.16
(+615%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 29.4%)
$18.57
(+117%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 29.4%)
$15.78
(+84%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.99
Bull Case
$13.30
(+55%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$12.09
(+41%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$5.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$9.37
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MFA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 59 HOLD |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 45 HOLD |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 39 SELL |
|
LADR
Ladder Capital Corp Clas… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$12 | 45 HOLD |
|
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$15 | 43 HOLD |
