Medallion Financial (MFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$11.79
-0.02 (-0.17%)
▼
5d:
-0.84%
30d:
-2.44%
90d:
+18.25%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.23
3.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $11.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.81 to $12.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFIN scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $11.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFIN scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.81 -
$12.10
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.2% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.81 -
$12.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.48
Resistance Level
$12.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.81
Wall Street Target
$11.50
(-2.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.2% premium
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 6.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.40
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$13.05
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$13.73
(+16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.78
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.7, Growth: 31.7%)
$67.92
(+476%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 31.7%)
$26.92
(+128%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 31.7%)
$22.88
(+94%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$14.75
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.5%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$13.41
(+14%)
Market implied 13.5%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$8.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 07, 2026 7:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:23 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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