Medallion Financial (MFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$12.05
-0.08 (-0.66%)
▼
5d:
+0.33%
30d:
+7.59%
90d:
+22.83%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.01
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.05
7.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $12.05, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.11 to $12.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFIN scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $12.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MFIN scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$11.11 -
$12.01
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
24.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($11.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.11 -
$12.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.68
Resistance Level
$12.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.37
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(-8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.47
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$12.91
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$13.36
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.96
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 42.6%)
$95.59
(+693%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 42.6%)
$34.93
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 42.6%)
$29.69
(+146%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$16.40
(+36%)
Analyst growth 22.9%, PE expands to 10.0
Base Case
$14.91
(+24%)
Market implied 22.9%, PE stable at 9.1
Bear Case
$8.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 12:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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