MFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$9.98
-0.02 (-0.20%)
▼
5d:
-0.6%
30d:
+0.81%
90d:
+13.02%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.69
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $9.98, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.62 to $10.13. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (6.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $9.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+10.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.62 -
$10.13
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.3% growth with -6.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.62 -
$10.13
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.45
Resistance Level
$9.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.81
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+10.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.3% premium
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 6.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.11
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$10.24
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$10.37
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.05
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 31.2%)
$72.04
(+622%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 31.2%)
$22.53
(+126%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 31.2%)
$19.15
(+92%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$10.89
(+9%)
Analyst growth -1.0%, PE expands to 7.4
Base Case
$9.90
(-1%)
Market implied -1.0%, PE stable at 6.8
Bear Case
$6.80
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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