MFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$9.66
0.28 (2.99%)
▲
5d:
-1.93%
30d:
+1.47%
90d:
+10.53%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.40
15.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $9.66, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.48 to $9.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.45. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.00 (+17.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.48 -
$9.79
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.48 -
$9.79
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.45
Resistance Level
$9.90
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.47
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(+17.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.5 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.35
(0%)
2-Year Target
$9.32
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$9.30
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$9.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 30.0%)
$69.46
(+641%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 30.0%)
$20.63
(+120%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.5, Growth: 30.0%)
$17.53
(+87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$10.27
(+10%)
Analyst growth -2.0%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$9.34
(-1%)
Market implied -2.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$6.48
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$9.42
(+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 4:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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