Medallion Financial (MFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$9.19
-0.23 (-2.44%)
▼
5d:
-11.38%
30d:
-19.67%
90d:
-19.6%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
42/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$10.14 – $11.78
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.6x
FAIR
vs 6.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$12.25
+33.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$9.14 / $11.83
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MFIN is down 11.4% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.58
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.54
20.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $9.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.14 to $11.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.5) is in line with its historical norms (6.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.25 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.25 (+33.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.14 -
$11.78
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.14 -
$11.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$9.14
Resistance Level
$11.83
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.3% below Wall St target ($12.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.55
Wall Street Target
$12.25
(+33.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.8%
Profit Margin
7.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 6.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.07
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$8.95
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$8.84
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$9.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 29.9%)
$61.14
(+565%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.5, Growth: 29.9%)
$20.16
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 29.9%)
$17.14
(+87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.11
Bull Case
$13.10
(+43%)
Analyst growth 26.4%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$11.91
(+30%)
Market implied 26.4%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$6.41
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.5 to 6.8
Stabilization Target:
$9.54
(+3.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MFIN)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Dec 29, 2021
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on MFIN are bearish (sentiment score -0.05) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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