Medallion Financial (MFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$11.32
0.12 (1.07%)
▲
5d:
+1.16%
30d:
-1.91%
90d:
+15.86%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MFIN trades at premium valuation expecting 6.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MFIN trades at premium valuation expecting 6.0% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.59
Based on 13.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $11.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.39 to $12.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (6.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.89, while resistance sits at $12.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.89, while resistance sits at $12.09.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.39 -
$12.06
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.92)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.0% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (43/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.39 -
$12.06
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.89
Resistance Level
$12.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.07
Wall Street Target
$11.92
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.0% premium
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 6.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.00
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$12.72
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$13.48
(+19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 22.4%)
$51.08
(+351%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 22.4%)
$20.75
(+83%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 22.4%)
$17.49
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$13.00
(+16%)
Analyst growth 5.5%, PE expands to 9.3
Base Case
$11.82
(+6%)
Market implied 5.5%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$7.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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