Medallion Financial (MFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MFIN - Medallion Financial Corp
$11.75
-0.17 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
-1.76%
30d:
-1.59%
90d:
+17.03%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MFIN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.25
11.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MFIN is currently trading at $11.75, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.79 to $12.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.39, while resistance sits at $12.16.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MFIN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $11.39, while resistance sits at $12.16.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.79 -
$12.09
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($11.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with 2.5% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (41/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.79 -
$12.09
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.39
Resistance Level
$12.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.29
Wall Street Target
$11.00
(-7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-32.6%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
7.3 vs 6.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.27
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$12.62
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$12.99
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.94
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 42.6%)
$96.68
(+711%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: 42.6%)
$34.55
(+190%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: 42.6%)
$29.37
(+146%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$16.08
(+35%)
Analyst growth 22.9%, PE expands to 9.8
Base Case
$14.62
(+23%)
Market implied 22.9%, PE stable at 8.9
Bear Case
$8.09
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 2:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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