MLCO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MLCO - Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited American Depositary Shares
$4.14
-0.34 (-7.59%)
▼
5d:
-11.35%
30d:
-18.34%
90d:
-23.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MLCO is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MLCO is down 11.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.07
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.25
33.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MLCO is currently trading at $4.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.59 to $5.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.8) compared to its historical average (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MLCO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.06 (+70.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MLCO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: MLCO scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.06 (+70.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.59 -
$5.24
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 70.6% below Wall St target ($7.06)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.59 -
$5.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.07
Resistance Level
$4.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.76
Wall Street Target
$7.06
(+70.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.7%
Profit Margin
4.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.8 vs 7.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.83
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$3.55
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$3.29
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$4.11
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 67.1%)
$49.46
(+1095%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.8, Growth: 67.1%)
$13.97
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 67.1%)
$11.88
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.59 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.59
Bull Case
$6.00
(+45%)
Analyst growth 21.8%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case
$5.45
(+32%)
Market implied 21.8%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$3.05
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.8 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$5.17
(+24.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 5:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MLCO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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