Is MMS stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MMS is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: MMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of MMS stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MMS to be between $58.23 and $62.38. The current price is $55.96.

What is the analyst price target for MMS?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MMS is $105.00. This implies a potential upside of 94.3% from current levels.

MMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MMS - MAXIMUS, Inc.

SERVICES-BUSINESS SERVICES, NEC

$55.96

1.92 (3.55%) ▲

5d: -8.53%

30d: -8.85%

90d: -18.33%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 06, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 7.5%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$103.12

Based on 5.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$64.03

12.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MMS is currently trading at $55.96, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.23 to $62.38. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.0) compared to its historical average (8.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MMS is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $58.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.00 (+94.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $58.23 - $62.38

Company Quality Score 59/100 (HOLD)

Options IV Signal 41th percentile (NORMAL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 81.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 41th percentile)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
BULLISH: Trading 94.3% below Wall St target ($105.00)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.5% 5-day decline

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $58.23 - $62.38

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$3.47 (6.2%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $58.26

Resistance Level $63.26

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 5.96

Wall Street Target $105.00 (+94.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -4.1%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 6.5%

Profit Margin 7.0%

Valuation Discount vs History -11.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 6.0 vs 8.6 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -11.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $48.64 (-10%)

2-Year Target $43.77 (-19%)

3-Year Target $39.40 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 6→9) $56.86 (+5%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%) $245.60 (+355%)

Base: (SPY PE: 6.0, Growth: 7.5%) $67.19 (+24%)

Bear: (PE: 5.1, Growth: 7.5%) $57.11 (+6%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 8.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.66

Bull Case $83.50 (+55%)

Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 9.2

Base Case $75.91 (+41%)

Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 8.4

Bear Case $37.90 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.0 to 8.6

Stabilization Target: $78.00 (+44.3%)

PE Expansion Potential: +44.3%

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Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS BUYING

Recent Transactions

Jan Madsen SELL 742 shares 2026-03-17

Bruce Caswell BUY 3175 shares 2026-02-10

David Mutryn BUY 1000 shares 2026-02-09

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