MOH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOH - Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$201.42
4.86 (2.47%)
▲
5d:
+0.6%
30d:
+9.38%
90d:
+42.11%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
27d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MOH trades at premium valuation expecting 7.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: MOH trades at premium valuation expecting 7.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$314.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$195.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOH is currently trading at $201.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $180.81 to $198.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.9) compared to its historical average (20.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$180.81 -
$198.84
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MOH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($191.76)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.7% growth with -4.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$180.81 -
$198.84
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$15.46
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.94
Resistance Level
$204.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.95
Wall Street Target
$191.76
(-4.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.0%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.7% premium
PE vs Historical
25.0 vs 20.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$216.93
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$233.63
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$251.62
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$201.71
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.9, Growth: 56.7%)
$679.79
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 56.7%)
$593.44
(+195%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 56.7%)
$504.42
(+150%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.35
Bull Case
$237.35
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.6
Base Case
$196.56
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.8
Bear Case
$150.37
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 33.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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Advanced MOH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MOH price and gamma walls.
