MOH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOH - Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$198.50
-1.79 (-0.89%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.25%
30d:
+0.48%
90d:
+7.8%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MOH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MOH is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$351.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$218.16
9.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOH is currently trading at $198.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $192.65 to $214.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.2) is in line with its historical norms (21.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $194.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $194.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$192.65 -
$214.91
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MOH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($209.12)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.3% growth with -5.7% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$192.65 -
$214.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$10.88
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$194.08
Resistance Level
$214.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.21
Wall Street Target
$209.12
(+5.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-75.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 21.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$205.05
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$211.82
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$218.81
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23â21)
PE COMPRESSION
$198.88
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 63.1%)
$669.94
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 63.1%)
$578.64
(+192%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.0, Growth: 63.1%)
$491.84
(+148%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 37.88 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.24
Bull Case
$239.69
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 39.8
Base Case
$198.50
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 37.9
Bear Case
$151.85
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 9:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
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Advanced MOH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MOH price and gamma walls.
