MOH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOH - Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$231.70
-9.86 (-4.08%)
▼
5d:
+0.33%
30d:
+15.69%
90d:
+57.07%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
6d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 11.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$336.26
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$208.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOH is currently trading at $231.70, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $199.06 to $233.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 29.0) compared to its historical average (20.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 11.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MOH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $197.35. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $204.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: MOH has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $197.35. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$199.06 -
$233.32
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- BEARISH: Trading 18.3% above Wall St target ($197.35)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 11.9% growth with -4.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$199.06 -
$233.32
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$172.94
Resistance Level
$204.95
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.96
Wall Street Target
$197.35
(-18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.0%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+11.9% premium
PE vs Historical
29.0 vs 20.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+11.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$270.31
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$302.47
(+25%)
3-Year Target
$338.47
(+40%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$241.95
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.0, Growth: 62.1%)
$815.27
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 62.1%)
$613.19
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 62.1%)
$521.21
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 43.67 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.53
Bull Case
$291.68
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 45.9
Base Case
$241.56
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 43.7
Bear Case
$184.79
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 39.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 12:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-30
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BUY
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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