MPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.
$34.80
0.17 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
-1.56%
30d:
+3.14%
90d:
+2.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MPB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.5% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.36
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPB is currently trading at $34.80, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.29 to $34.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.5) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $33.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $33.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$33.29 -
$34.86
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($37.17)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.5% growth with 33.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.29 -
$34.86
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.46
Resistance Level
$33.87
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.53
Wall Street Target
$37.17
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.3%
Profit Margin
21.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 8.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.84
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$37.10
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$38.39
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.2%)
$124.17
(+259%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 16.2%)
$54.34
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 16.2%)
$46.19
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.22
Bull Case
$61.68
(+78%)
Analyst growth 63.7%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$56.07
(+62%)
Market implied 63.7%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$23.30
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
972 shares
2026-03-12
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
1618 shares
2026-03-12
Thomas R Brugger
BUY
818 shares
2026-03-06
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