Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$34.94
+0.16 (+0.46%)
▲
5d:
-0.26%
30d:
-2.62%
90d:
-8.87%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (71%)
Quality Score
55/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$34.31 – $36.04
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.6x
FAIR
vs 8.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$39.50
+13.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$33.82 / $35.89
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: MPB is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.04
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPB is currently trading at $34.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.31 to $36.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $35.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $35.89. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $39.50 (+13.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.31 -
$36.04
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$34.31 -
$36.04
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$33.82
Resistance Level
$35.89
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($39.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.63
Wall Street Target
$39.50
(+13.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Profit Margin
25.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.85
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$36.78
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$37.74
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$34.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.6%)
$102.81
(+194%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 12.6%)
$49.83
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 12.6%)
$42.35
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.92
Bull Case
$47.56
(+36%)
Analyst growth 24.3%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$43.24
(+24%)
Market implied 24.3%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$23.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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