Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.
$33.88
-2.47 (-6.80%)
▼
5d:
-5.81%
30d:
-5.63%
90d:
-8.85%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MPB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.61
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.53
1.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPB is currently trading at $33.88, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.53 to $36.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 286.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPB scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.00 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $33.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MPB scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.00 (+21.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$35.53 -
$36.78
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.0% below Wall St target ($41.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.53 -
$36.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.49
Resistance Level
$36.94
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.78
Wall Street Target
$41.00
(+21.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
286.4%
Profit Margin
25.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.74
(0%)
2-Year Target
$33.61
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$33.48
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$33.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$121.03
(+257%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$53.49
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 16.4%)
$45.46
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.71 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.86
Bull Case
$53.97
(+59%)
Analyst growth 35.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$49.06
(+45%)
Market implied 35.0%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$24.72
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$34.35
(+1.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 7:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:53 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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