MPB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.
$37.24
0.02 (0.05%)
â˛
5d:
-3.1%
30d:
+2.14%
90d:
+14.09%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MPB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MPB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 3.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.77
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.77
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPB is currently trading at $37.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.13 to $38.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.7) compared to its historical average (8.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MPB scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MPB scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.13 -
$38.51
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.13 -
$38.51
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.72
Resistance Level
$38.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.66
Wall Street Target
$40.33
(+8.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
286.4%
Profit Margin
25.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$39.82
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$41.17
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â9)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.1%)
$118.11
(+217%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 15.1%)
$56.82
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 15.1%)
$48.30
(+30%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.83 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.90
Bull Case
$54.45
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.0%, PE expands to 14.1
Base Case
$49.50
(+33%)
Market implied 33.0%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$25.31
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 4:25 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:25 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
972 shares
2026-03-12
Soto Matthew G De
BUY
1618 shares
2026-03-12
Thomas R Brugger
BUY
818 shares
2026-03-06
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