Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MPB - Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.
$37.07
0.06 (0.16%)
▲
5d:
-0.13%
30d:
-3.06%
90d:
+9.29%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MPB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MPB is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.38
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MPB is currently trading at $37.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.71 to $37.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MPB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $37.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.71 -
$37.99
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.71 -
$37.99
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.87
Resistance Level
$37.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$40.33
(+8.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
286.4%
Profit Margin
25.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.18
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$39.33
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$40.51
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 15.1%)
$118.70
(+220%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 15.1%)
$56.56
(+53%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 15.1%)
$48.08
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.90
Bull Case
$54.14
(+46%)
Analyst growth 33.0%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$49.22
(+33%)
Market implied 33.0%, PE stable at 12.8
Bear Case
$25.17
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MPB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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