MRTN
Marten Transport Ltd
TRUCKING (NO LOCAL)
Marten Transport (MRTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$11.98
-0.03 (-0.21%)
▼
5d:
+0.04%
30d:
-6.15%
90d:
-21.21%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (73%)
Quality Score
54/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$11.88 – $12.74
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
23.2x
CHEAP
vs 30.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$15.75
+31.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
100th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$11.51 / $12.42
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MRTN appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.2% annual earnings decline despite 30% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.15
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.62
23.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRTN is currently trading at $11.98, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.88 to $12.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.2) compared to its historical average (30.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 30.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.51, while resistance sits at $12.42.
Market Sentiment: MRTN scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.75 (+31.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.51, while resistance sits at $12.42.
Market Sentiment: MRTN scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.75 (+31.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$11.88 -
$12.74
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
100th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$11.88 -
$12.74
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.39
(11.6%)
Support Level
$11.51
Resistance Level
$12.42
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 100th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.1% below Wall St target ($15.75)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 75/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.24
Wall Street Target
$15.75
(+31.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
30.5%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.2 vs 30.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.03
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$10.12
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$9.29
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→30)
$12.03
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.2, Growth: 162.7%)
$40.53
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 162.7%)
$34.63
(+188%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 162.7%)
$29.44
(+145%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.68
Bull Case
$14.50
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$12.01
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$9.19
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.2 to 30.1
Stabilization Target:
$15.55
(+29.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MRTN)
Bearish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 20, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding small-cap trucking stocks $HTLD, $KNX, $MRTN, and $TFII, all of which have rebounded after a 5-week pullback and are above their 20-day moving averages.
Key Retail Themes:
Rebound after pullback
Above 20-day moving averages
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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