MRTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRTN - Marten Transport Ltd
$14.91
0.12 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
-3.74%
30d:
-14.6%
90d:
-1.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRTN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.85
24.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRTN is currently trading at $14.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.83 to $17.81. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.7) compared to its historical average (33.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MRTN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+24.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.83 -
$17.81
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.1% below Wall St target ($18.50)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.83 -
$17.81
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.69
(4.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.53
Resistance Level
$17.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.70
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+24.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.8%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 33.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.42
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$12.08
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.87
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→34)
$16.23
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: 118.9%)
$50.32
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 118.9%)
$45.95
(+208%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 118.9%)
$39.05
(+162%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.85
Bull Case
$18.00
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$14.91
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$11.41
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.7 to 33.9
Stabilization Target:
$22.26
(+49.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+49.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MRTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRTN price and gamma walls.
