Marten Transport (MRTN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRTN - Marten Transport Ltd
$13.34
0.26 (1.99%)
▲
5d:
+3.65%
30d:
-4.65%
90d:
-22.53%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MRTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MRTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.64
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.65
32.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRTN is currently trading at $13.34, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.17 to $14.26. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.5) compared to its historical average (31.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRTN scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.50 (+31.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRTN is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MRTN scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.50 (+31.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$13.17 -
$14.26
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
11th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MRTN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.2% below Wall St target ($17.50)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.17 -
$14.26
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.66
(4.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.66
Resistance Level
$13.61
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.52
Wall Street Target
$17.50
(+31.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.8%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.5 vs 31.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.01
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.81
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.72
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→31)
$14.83
(+11%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.5, Growth: 136.4%)
$45.02
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 136.4%)
$44.75
(+236%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 136.4%)
$38.04
(+185%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 17.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.76
Bull Case
$16.11
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.5
Base Case
$13.34
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$10.21
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.5 to 31.3
Stabilization Target:
$20.35
(+52.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+52.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MRTN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MRTN price and gamma walls.
