SAIA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SAIA - Saia, Inc.
$347.63
-3.00 (-0.86%)
▼
5d:
-17.95%
30d:
-16.86%
90d:
-22.55%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAIA is down 17.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: SAIA is down 17.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$707.35
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$439.21
20.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SAIA is currently trading at $347.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $404.99 to $437.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.9) compared to its historical average (30.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAIA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $341.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $462.10 (+32.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SAIA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $341.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $462.10 (+32.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$404.99 -
$437.98
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SAIA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.9% below Wall St target ($462.10)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -17.9% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$404.99 -
$437.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$341.59
Resistance Level
$436.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.93
Wall Street Target
$462.10
(+32.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.9 vs 30.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$321.91
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$298.08
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$276.03
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→30)
$347.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.9, Growth: 26.9%)
$710.30
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 26.9%)
$615.42
(+77%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 26.9%)
$523.11
(+51%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.51
Bull Case
$589.26
(+70%)
Analyst growth 52.8%, PE expands to 40.6
Base Case
$535.69
(+54%)
Market implied 52.8%, PE stable at 36.9
Bear Case
$238.43
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.9 to 30.1
Stabilization Target:
$437.33
(+25.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SAIA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Frederick J Holzgrefe III
SELL
4775 shares
2026-02-13
Kelly W Benton
SELL
800 shares
2026-02-13
Matthew J Batteh
SELL
916 shares
2026-02-13
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SAIA price and gamma walls.
