MT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MT - ArcelorMittal
$65.92
-0.16 (-0.24%)
▼
5d:
+0.87%
30d:
+3.31%
90d:
+8.71%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 3.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.73
16.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MT is currently trading at $65.92, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $61.34 to $68.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $64.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$61.34 -
$68.01
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($70.05)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with 4.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$61.34 -
$68.01
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$64.07
Resistance Level
$72.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.11
Wall Street Target
$70.05
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.9%
Profit Margin
4.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$66.05
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$66.18
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$66.32
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$65.51
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 55.1%)
$531.82
(+707%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 55.1%)
$222.48
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 55.1%)
$189.11
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.82
Bull Case
$137.67
(+109%)
Analyst growth 89.4%, PE expands to 19.0
Base Case
$125.15
(+90%)
Market implied 89.4%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$44.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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