ArcelorMittal (MT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MT - ArcelorMittal

Steel Works, Blast Furnaces & Rolling Mills (Coke Ovens)
$74.51
-0.55 (-0.73%) â–ŧ
5d: -2.05%
30d: +0.44%
90d: +7.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $78.74 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 6.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: MT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.72
9.9% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MT is currently trading at $74.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.62 to $75.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $72.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: MT scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR
Historical Trading Range $72.62 - $75.87
Company Quality Score 52/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 48.6%

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All Signals

  • NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.89)
  • BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with 5.2% revenue growth
  • WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $72.62 - $75.87
Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $72.39
Resistance Level $79.68
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.02
Wall Street Target $77.89 (+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 5.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -61.7%
Profit Margin 2.9%
Valuation Premium vs History +2.9% premium
PE vs Historical 10.0 vs 9.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +2.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $76.67 (+3%)
2-Year Target $78.89 (+6%)
3-Year Target $81.18 (+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→9) PE COMPRESSION $74.54 (0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 70.8%) $506.21 (+579%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 70.8%) $251.47 (+238%)
Bear: (PE: 8.5, Growth: 70.8%) $213.75 (+187%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.38
Bull Case $165.13 (+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 34.7
Base Case $150.12 (+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 31.5
Bear Case $51.04 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:21 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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