Is STLD stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, STLD is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STLD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of STLD stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for STLD to be between $230.18 and $243.11. The current price is $238.56.

What is the analyst price target for STLD?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for STLD is $272.75. This implies a potential upside of 10.0% from current levels.

Steel Dynamics (STLD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

STLD - Steel Dynamics Inc

STEEL WORKS, BLAST FURNACES & ROLLING MILLS (COKE OVENS)

$238.56

-9.41 (-3.79%) ▼

5d: -0.91%

30d: +1.82%

90d: -3.46%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your STLD Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 19, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 21, 2026 at $247.97 · last confirmed Oct 22, 2026

Strength: 4.8/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: STLD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 23.9%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$516.76

Based on 14.0% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$320.87

25.7% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: STLD is currently trading at $238.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $230.18 to $243.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 92.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $231.25, while resistance sits at $248.96. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 49/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $230.18 - $243.11

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 41.4%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (49/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($272.75)
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $230.18 - $243.11

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $231.25

Resistance Level $248.96

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.60

Wall Street Target $272.75 (+10.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 34.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 92.0%

Profit Margin 8.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -3.1% cheaper

PE vs Historical 11.6 vs 12.7 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -3.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $240.28 (-3%)

2-Year Target $232.83 (-6%)

3-Year Target $225.62 (-9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→13) $247.08 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.9%) $806.82 (+225%)

Base: (SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 23.9%) $471.12 (+90%)

Bear: (PE: 9.9, Growth: 23.9%) $400.45 (+62%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 18.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.54

Bull Case $424.51 (+71%)

Analyst growth 57.9%, PE expands to 19.9

Base Case $385.92 (+56%)

Market implied 57.9%, PE stable at 18.1

Bear Case $166.17 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 12.7

Stabilization Target: $271.56 (+9.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +9.5%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced STLD Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STLD price and gamma walls.

Iron Condor Bull Call Bear Put Collar

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