STLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STLD - Steel Dynamics Inc
$243.17
-7.81 (-3.11%)
▼
5d:
-10.66%
30d:
+4.89%
90d:
+45.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 20, 2026
26d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STLD is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STLD is down 10.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$345.50
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$214.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STLD is currently trading at $243.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $236.33 to $273.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $248.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $248.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$236.33 -
$273.61
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($268.18)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.7% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$236.33 -
$273.61
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$248.19
Resistance Level
$280.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.06
Wall Street Target
$268.18
(+6.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.1%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
14.1 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$258.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$266.26
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$274.25
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$251.62
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.0%)
$560.37
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$361.76
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.0, Growth: 13.0%)
$307.49
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (27x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.35
Bull Case
$524.81
(+109%)
Analyst growth 90.9%, PE expands to 29.4
Base Case
$477.10
(+90%)
Market implied 90.9%, PE stable at 26.7
Bear Case
$169.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is STLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kenneth W Cornew
SELL
5000 shares
2026-04-23
Miguel Alvarez
SELL
4825 shares
2026-04-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-01-09
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Advanced STLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STLD price and gamma walls.
