STLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
STLD - Steel Dynamics Inc
$228.68
9.68 (4.42%)
▲
5d:
-10.59%
30d:
-4.94%
90d:
-1.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 19, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 18, 2026 at $249.81 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 8.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STLD is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: STLD is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$372.28
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$231.16
1.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: STLD is currently trading at $228.68, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $234.42 to $261.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 83.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $218.02, while resistance sits at $271.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: STLD scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.64 (+18.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, STLD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $218.02, while resistance sits at $271.00. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: STLD scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $272.64 (+18.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$234.42 -
$261.70
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding STLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($272.64)
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$234.42 -
$261.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$218.02
Resistance Level
$271.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.15
Wall Street Target
$272.64
(+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
33.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
83.6%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$226.39
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$221.86
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$217.42
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$230.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$557.45
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 13.5%)
$337.38
(+46%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 13.5%)
$286.77
(+24%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.02
Bull Case
$474.24
(+107%)
Analyst growth 72.6%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$431.12
(+89%)
Market implied 72.6%, PE stable at 22.7
Bear Case
$169.87
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$245.34
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:00 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is STLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kenneth W Cornew
SELL
5000 shares
2026-04-23
Miguel Alvarez
SELL
4825 shares
2026-04-23
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Advanced STLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's STLD price and gamma walls.
