Is MTCH stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, MTCH is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTCH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of MTCH stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for MTCH to be between $37.94 and $42.15. The current price is $42.55.

What is the analyst price target for MTCH?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for MTCH is $41.88. This implies a potential upside of 0.1% from current levels.

Match Group (MTCH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

MTCH - Match Group, Inc

SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.

$42.55

0.73 (1.73%) ▲

5d: +0.27%

30d: +16.31%

90d: +23.07%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 03, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $42.12 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 5.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MTCH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 15.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$61.42

Based on 9.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$38.14

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: MTCH is currently trading at $42.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.94 to $42.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, MTCH is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.47. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: MTCH scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $37.94 - $42.15

Company Quality Score 49/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 24.8%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.88)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $37.94 - $42.15

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $40.11

Resistance Level $43.47

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 9.14

Wall Street Target $41.88 (+0.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) -1.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 50.4%

Profit Margin 20.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.7% premium

PE vs Historical 9.1 vs 8.4 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $42.95 (+3%)

2-Year Target $44.11 (+6%)

3-Year Target $45.30 (+8%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→8) PE COMPRESSION $41.65 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: 15.8%) $143.19 (+242%)

Base: (SPY PE: 9.1, Growth: 15.8%) $64.86 (+55%)

Bear: (PE: 7.8, Growth: 15.8%) $55.13 (+32%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 14.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.82

Bull Case $73.98 (+77%)

Analyst growth 62.3%, PE expands to 16.2

Base Case $67.25 (+61%)

Market implied 62.3%, PE stable at 14.7

Bear Case $28.17 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 3:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Advanced MTCH Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTCH price and gamma walls.

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