MTCH
Match Group, Inc
SERVICES-COMPUTER PROGRAMMING, DATA PROCESSING, ETC.
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Match Group (MTCH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$39.94
+0.64 (+1.63%)
▲
5d:
+3.74%
30d:
-3.81%
90d:
+9.19%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (76%)
Quality Score
63/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$39.86 – $44.46
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.1x
STRETCHED
vs 8.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$45.24
+13.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$38.32 / $43.53
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: MTCH trades at premium valuation expecting 5.4% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 3, 2026 at $38.69 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.39
Based on 3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTCH is currently trading at $39.94, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.86 to $44.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (8.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTCH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.32, while resistance sits at $43.53.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.24 (+13.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTCH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.32, while resistance sits at $43.53.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $45.24 (+13.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$39.86 -
$44.46
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$39.86 -
$44.46
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$38.32
Resistance Level
$43.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTCH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($45.24)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.4% growth which is achievable
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.07
Wall Street Target
$45.24
(+13.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.9%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 8.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.10
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$44.37
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$46.77
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$39.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.9%)
$85.67
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 2.9%)
$43.46
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 2.9%)
$36.94
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.93
Bull Case
$58.49
(+47%)
Analyst growth 35.3%, PE expands to 14.8
Base Case
$53.18
(+33%)
Market implied 35.3%, PE stable at 13.4
Bear Case
$26.72
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MTCH)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 7, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits users express bullish sentiment towards $MTCH, as the stock has been trending upward since April and all dips are being bought at the trendline.
Key Retail Themes:
Uptrend
Buy dips
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 10, 2026 10:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTCH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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