Match Group (MTCH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTCH - Match Group, Inc
$40.13
-0.02 (-0.05%)
▼
5d:
-1.64%
30d:
-4.25%
90d:
+5.88%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTCH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MTCH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.15
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTCH is currently trading at $40.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.56 to $42.98. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTCH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTCH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.56 -
$42.98
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTCH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (57/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.56 -
$42.98
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.11
Resistance Level
$43.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.77
Wall Street Target
$41.88
(+4.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.4%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.53
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$40.94
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$41.35
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$40.09
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 15.8%)
$144.82
(+261%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 15.8%)
$62.24
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 15.8%)
$52.90
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.82
Bull Case
$71.69
(+79%)
Analyst growth 62.3%, PE expands to 15.7
Base Case
$65.17
(+62%)
Market implied 62.3%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$27.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 01, 2026 7:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTCH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MTCH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTCH price and gamma walls.
