MTG
MGIC Investment Corp.
SURETY INSURANCE
MGIC Investment (MTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$27.76
-0.11 (-0.39%)
âŧ
5d:
-5.42%
30d:
+1.72%
90d:
-10.91%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (68%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$27.38 â $28.72
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.0x
FAIR
vs 8.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$30.17
+8.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$27.53 / $30.64
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.89
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.28
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $27.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.38 to $28.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $27.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$27.38 -
$28.72
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$27.38 -
$28.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$27.53
Resistance Level
$30.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($30.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.04
Wall Street Target
$30.17
(+8.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.4%
Profit Margin
58.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.40
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$27.04
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$26.69
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â8)
$27.89
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.7%)
$78.73
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 4.7%)
$31.87
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 4.7%)
$27.09
(-2%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.22
Bull Case
$32.88
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.2%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$29.89
(+8%)
Market implied 7.2%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$18.95
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$29.01
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MTG)
Bearish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
Last Tracked
Oct 31, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on MTG are bearish (sentiment score -0.23) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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