MGIC Investment (MTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$30.74
-0.10 (-0.32%)
▼
5d:
-2.32%
30d:
+0.33%
90d:
+20.69%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MTG is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.23
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $30.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.55 to $31.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.50. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$30.55 -
$31.14
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.55 -
$31.14
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.50
Resistance Level
$31.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.97
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+0.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
59.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.42
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.11
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$32.81
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$30.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.4%)
$80.95
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$35.99
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.6, Growth: 5.4%)
$30.59
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.20
Bull Case
$36.34
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.1%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$33.04
(+8%)
Market implied 7.1%, PE stable at 9.6
Bear Case
$20.97
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy J Mattke
SELL
139202 shares
2026-04-02
Salvatore A Miosi
SELL
10931 shares
2026-04-01
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