MTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$26.49
0.19 (0.72%)
▲
5d:
+2.52%
30d:
+1.22%
90d:
+2.4%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.60
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $26.49, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.29 to $26.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $26.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $26.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$25.29 -
$26.25
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.29 -
$26.25
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.69
Resistance Level
$26.30
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.02
Wall Street Target
$28.67
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1.3%
Profit Margin
59.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.23
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$25.96
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$25.70
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$26.61
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$90.43
(+241%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 7.9%)
$33.29
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 7.9%)
$28.30
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.15
Bull Case
$30.34
(+15%)
Analyst growth 4.9%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$27.59
(+4%)
Market implied 4.9%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$17.88
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$27.42
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy J Mattke
SELL
139202 shares
2026-04-02
Salvatore A Miosi
SELL
10931 shares
2026-04-01
Paula C Maggio
SELL
20000 shares
2026-02-06
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