MGIC Investment (MTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$27.74
0.43 (1.57%)
▲
5d:
+0.47%
30d:
-5.32%
90d:
-6.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MTG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.51
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.67
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $27.74, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.95 to $29.28. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTG scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.40 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $28.45. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTG scores 67/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.40 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$26.95 -
$29.28
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (67/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.40)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 67/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$26.95 -
$29.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.73
Resistance Level
$28.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.05
Wall Street Target
$31.40
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
59.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.38
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$27.02
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$26.67
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$27.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 5.5%)
$80.40
(+190%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 5.5%)
$32.58
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 5.5%)
$27.70
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.20
Bull Case
$32.36
(+17%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$29.42
(+6%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$18.57
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$28.95
(+4.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 7:08 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:08 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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