MGIC Investment (MTG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$26.95
0.58 (2.20%)
▲
5d:
-5.37%
30d:
-13.18%
90d:
-4.47%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Get Alerted When MTG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.88
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $26.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.31 to $31.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.68, while resistance sits at $29.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+15.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $25.68, while resistance sits at $29.91.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.00 (+15.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$28.31 -
$31.30
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($31.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.4%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.31 -
$31.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.68
Resistance Level
$29.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.80
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+15.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
59.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.28
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$25.62
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$24.98
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$26.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.8%)
$83.45
(+210%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: 5.8%)
$31.89
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: 5.8%)
$27.11
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.26
Bull Case
$30.76
(+14%)
Analyst growth 6.0%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$27.96
(+4%)
Market implied 6.0%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$17.93
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$29.04
(+7.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:11 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance - Specialty Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance - Specialty by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group Hol… |
BUY
13 analysts |
$51 | 65 BUY |
|
AXS
AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd |
BUY
9 analysts |
$123 | 61 BUY |
|
NMIH
NMI Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
7 analysts |
$50 | 54 HOLD |
|
ESNT
Essent Group Ltd |
BUY
8 analysts |
$75 | 54 HOLD |
|
RDN
Radian Group Inc |
BUY
6 analysts |
$45 | 49 HOLD |
