MTG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTG - MGIC Investment Corp.
$30.90
0.19 (0.62%)
â˛
5d:
-0.83%
30d:
+6.7%
90d:
+18.07%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MTG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.5% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.23
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTG is currently trading at $30.90, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.22 to $30.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTG scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.14. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MTG scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$29.22 -
$30.94
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
39.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($31.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$29.22 -
$30.94
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.14
Resistance Level
$31.54
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.01
Wall Street Target
$31.00
(+0.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Profit Margin
59.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.5% premium
PE vs Historical
9.0 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.67
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$32.46
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$33.28
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.01
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 5.4%)
$80.55
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.0, Growth: 5.4%)
$36.18
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.7, Growth: 5.4%)
$30.75
(-1%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.18
Bull Case
$36.42
(+18%)
Analyst growth 7.8%, PE expands to 10.6
Base Case
$33.10
(+7%)
Market implied 7.8%, PE stable at 9.7
Bear Case
$20.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy J Mattke
SELL
139202 shares
2026-04-02
Salvatore A Miosi
SELL
10931 shares
2026-04-01
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