Matrix Service (MTRX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MTRX - Matrix Service Co
$10.28
-0.18 (-1.72%)
▼
5d:
+5.54%
30d:
-5.34%
90d:
-20.92%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MTRX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MTRX shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.48
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MTRX is currently trading at $10.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.82 to $10.73. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (15.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTRX scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+55.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MTRX is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MTRX scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $16.00 (+55.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.82 -
$10.73
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
34th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MTRX? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 34th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.6% below Wall St target ($16.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.82 -
$10.73
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.72
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.38
Resistance Level
$10.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.79
Wall Street Target
$16.00
(+55.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.0%
Profit Margin
-0.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 15.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.02
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.77
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$9.53
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$10.24
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 0.0%)
$14.18
(+38%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 0.0%)
$10.28
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 0.0%)
$8.74
(-15%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 15.9
Stabilization Target:
$11.05
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MTRX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced MTRX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MTRX price and gamma walls.
