MUFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUFG - Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, Inc.
$22.04
0.48 (2.23%)
▲
5d:
-4.42%
30d:
-2.56%
90d:
+13.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUFG is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MUFG is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.37
Based on 8.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUFG is currently trading at $22.04, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.86 to $22.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (13.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MUFG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUFG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.49. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: MUFG scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$21.86 -
$22.84
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.59)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.86 -
$22.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.49
Resistance Level
$23.24
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.07
Wall Street Target
$21.59
(-2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.9%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.03
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$24.07
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$25.15
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$22.04
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.6%)
$43.10
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 13.6%)
$32.35
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 13.6%)
$27.50
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.33
Bull Case
$26.09
(+18%)
Analyst growth 10.0%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$23.71
(+8%)
Market implied 10.0%, PE stable at 16.2
Bear Case
$14.66
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 10:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:58 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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