MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$34.90
1.15 (3.41%)
▲
5d:
+10.03%
30d:
-12.4%
90d:
-10.03%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MUR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: MUR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.44
Based on 0.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.08
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $34.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.94 to $38.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.1) compared to its historical average (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.00 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$32.94 -
$38.09
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.1% below Wall St target ($44.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.94 -
$38.09
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.19
Resistance Level
$40.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.14
Wall Street Target
$44.00
(+26.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 14.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.41
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.27
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.44
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→14)
$35.39
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -4.0%)
$66.33
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: -4.0%)
$30.87
(-12%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: -4.0%)
$26.24
(-25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 11.05 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.05
Bull Case
$40.75
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$33.75
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$25.82
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.1 to 14.1
Stabilization Target:
$48.54
(+39.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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