Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$37.47
0.45 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
+0.24%
30d:
-0.35%
90d:
+17.53%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: MUR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.35
Based on 1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $37.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.73 to $38.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (13.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 916.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 69/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$35.73 -
$38.28
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (69/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.14)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 13% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.73 -
$38.28
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.26
Resistance Level
$38.02
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.77
Wall Street Target
$40.14
(+7.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
916.6%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 13.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$35.78
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.17
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$32.64
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$37.44
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -1.8%)
$61.53
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: -1.8%)
$35.49
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: -1.8%)
$30.17
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.08
Bull Case
$62.34
(+66%)
Analyst growth 53.1%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$56.67
(+51%)
Market implied 53.1%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$25.17
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 13.5
Stabilization Target:
$42.98
(+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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