Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$42.16
-0.80 (-1.86%)
▼
5d:
+5.8%
30d:
+16.43%
90d:
+8.24%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.72
Based on -2.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $42.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.39 to $40.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 916.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.97, while resistance sits at $43.63.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $37.97, while resistance sits at $43.63.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.39 -
$40.52
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.93)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.39 -
$40.52
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.97
Resistance Level
$43.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.58
Wall Street Target
$41.93
(-2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
916.6%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$40.94
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$39.02
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$37.18
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$43.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -8.0%)
$57.44
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -8.0%)
$33.50
(-22%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: -8.0%)
$28.47
(-34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.02
Bull Case
$87.03
(+103%)
Analyst growth 83.6%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$79.12
(+84%)
Market implied 83.6%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$29.30
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.4
Stabilization Target:
$49.70
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 10:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:11 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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