MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$36.16
1.73 (5.04%)
▲
5d:
-0.81%
30d:
-4.28%
90d:
-3.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.14
Based on -2.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $36.16, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $35.88 to $39.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.9) compared to its historical average (14.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.40 (+29.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $35.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.40 (+29.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$35.88 -
$39.65
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 29.0% below Wall St target ($44.40)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$35.88 -
$39.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.19
Resistance Level
$40.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.86
Wall Street Target
$44.40
(+29.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 14.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.98
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.88
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.09
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→15)
$36.92
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -9.2%)
$56.86
(+65%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: -9.2%)
$25.73
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: -9.2%)
$21.87
(-37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 10.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.14
Bull Case
$41.56
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$34.42
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 11.0
Bear Case
$26.33
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.9 to 14.5
Stabilization Target:
$50.64
(+47.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+47.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 1:44 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:44 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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