Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$38.50
-0.33 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
+3.16%
30d:
+9.19%
90d:
+0.03%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.81
Based on 4.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.65
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $38.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.74 to $37.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (13.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 916.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$34.74 -
$37.93
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.57)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.74 -
$37.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.21
Resistance Level
$39.37
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.72
Wall Street Target
$39.57
(+2.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
916.6%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 13.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.57
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$34.75
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$33.01
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$38.58
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.8%)
$76.30
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 4.8%)
$44.34
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 4.8%)
$37.69
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.04
Bull Case
$68.77
(+79%)
Analyst growth 61.0%, PE expands to 20.9
Base Case
$62.52
(+62%)
Market implied 61.0%, PE stable at 19.0
Bear Case
$26.40
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 13.7
Stabilization Target:
$45.00
(+16.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 5:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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