MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$37.41
-0.87 (-2.27%)
âŧ
5d:
+8.22%
30d:
-5.05%
90d:
-0.95%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MUR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: MUR is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.98
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $37.41, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.75 to $38.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.6) is in line with its historical norms (13.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 916.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.91, while resistance sits at $38.66.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $33.91, while resistance sits at $38.66.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.75 -
$38.37
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.93)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.75 -
$38.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$33.91
Resistance Level
$38.66
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.62
Wall Street Target
$39.93
(+6.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
35.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
916.6%
Profit Margin
9.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.6 vs 13.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.29
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.20
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$34.14
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13â14)
$37.32
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 2.5%)
$63.98
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.6, Growth: 2.5%)
$40.24
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 2.5%)
$34.21
(-9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.10
Bull Case
$59.42
(+59%)
Analyst growth 41.1%, PE expands to 20.1
Base Case
$54.02
(+44%)
Market implied 41.1%, PE stable at 18.2
Bear Case
$26.03
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.6 to 13.8
Stabilization Target:
$40.89
(+9.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:59 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:59 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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