Murphy Oil (MUR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$35.17
+0.45 (+1.30%)
▲
5d:
-2.14%
30d:
-9.91%
90d:
+1.09%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
35/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$36.96 – $42.85
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.3x
CHEAP
vs 13.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$42.47
+22.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$33.06 / $43.99
Trend: Support Break
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: MUR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$40.90
Based on -3.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$25.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $35.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.96 to $42.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.3) compared to its historical average (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 916.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is showing support break momentum. Immediate support is located at $33.06, while resistance sits at $43.98.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.47 (+22.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is showing support break momentum. Immediate support is located at $33.06, while resistance sits at $43.98.
Market Sentiment: MUR scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.47 (+22.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$36.96 -
$42.85
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$36.96 -
$42.85
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$33.06
Resistance Level
$43.99
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($42.47)
- WARNING: Composite score 35/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.31
Wall Street Target
$42.47
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
916.6%
Profit Margin
15.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.3 vs 13.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.25
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$28.12
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$25.31
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→13)
$35.90
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -11.0%)
$54.01
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.3, Growth: -11.0%)
$25.31
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.9, Growth: -11.0%)
$21.51
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.22
Bull Case
$44.03
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.9%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$40.03
(+15%)
Market implied 15.9%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$23.49
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.3 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$49.24
(+41.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (MUR)
Bullish
4 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
3 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 5, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Murphy Oil reported upbeat Q3 2026 results, with revenue surpassing analysts' expectations and non-GAAP profit beating estimates by a significant margin.
Key Retail Themes:
Strong Q3 earnings report from Murphy Oil
Positive investor sentiment towards the stock
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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