MUR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MUR - Murphy Oil Corp.
$39.74
1.53 (4.00%)
▲
5d:
+2.03%
30d:
+26.12%
90d:
-4.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MUR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.24
Based on -3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MUR is currently trading at $39.74, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.21 to $37.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.9) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MUR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.21. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MUR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$33.21 -
$37.88
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.07)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$33.21 -
$37.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.04
Resistance Level
$40.21
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.87
Wall Street Target
$43.07
(+8.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.9 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.67
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$37.62
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$36.61
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→14)
$39.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -11.7%)
$46.68
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.9, Growth: -11.7%)
$28.97
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.9, Growth: -11.7%)
$24.62
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 12.36 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.21
Bull Case
$47.99
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$39.74
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 12.4
Bear Case
$30.40
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.9 to 14.0
Stabilization Target:
$43.24
(+8.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 11:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:00 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is MUR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel R Hanchera
SELL
47320 shares
2026-03-11
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