NATIONAL BANK (NBHC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBHC - NATIONAL BANK HOLDINGS CORP.
$41.76
0.19 (0.46%)
â˛
5d:
-0.24%
30d:
-3.04%
90d:
-2.66%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NBHC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NBHC is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.19
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.58
4.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBHC is currently trading at $41.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.33 to $43.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $42.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBHC scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+16.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $42.29. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NBHC scores 62/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $48.50 (+16.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$41.33 -
$43.01
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (62/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($48.50)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with 22.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.33 -
$43.01
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.45
Resistance Level
$42.29
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.63
Wall Street Target
$48.50
(+16.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.1%
Profit Margin
21.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.01
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$42.26
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$42.52
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$41.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 19.1%)
$133.89
(+221%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 19.1%)
$70.53
(+69%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 19.1%)
$59.95
(+44%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.39
Bull Case
$75.19
(+80%)
Analyst growth 64.4%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$68.36
(+64%)
Market implied 64.4%, PE stable at 17.4
Bear Case
$28.27
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:13 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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