NATIONAL BANK (NBHC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NBHC - NATIONAL BANK HOLDINGS CORP.
$38.06
-1.11 (-2.83%)
▼
5d:
-5.25%
30d:
-8.47%
90d:
-14.2%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NBHC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NBHC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.16
Based on 12.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.81
15.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBHC is currently trading at $38.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.80 to $41.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NBHC scores 14/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.50 (+22.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NBHC scores 14/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $46.50 (+22.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$39.80 -
$41.82
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (14/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.2% below Wall St target ($46.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.80 -
$41.82
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.70
Resistance Level
$41.14
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$46.50
(+22.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.1%
Profit Margin
21.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.03
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$36.03
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$35.06
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$37.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 20.0%)
$139.63
(+267%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 20.0%)
$65.74
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 20.0%)
$55.88
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.38
Bull Case
$71.74
(+89%)
Analyst growth 66.5%, PE expands to 18.1
Base Case
$65.21
(+71%)
Market implied 66.5%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$26.64
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$41.21
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NBHC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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