NATIONAL BANK (NBHC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$37.18
+0.10 (+0.27%)
▲
5d:
-2.7%
30d:
-1.01%
90d:
-14.53%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (88%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$37.25 – $38.43
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
9.4x
FAIR
vs 10.3x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$43.25
+16.3% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$36.36 / $39.25
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NBHC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.04
24.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NBHC is currently trading at $37.18, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.25 to $38.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NBHC scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.25 (+16.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NBHC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $36.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NBHC scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.25 (+16.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.25 -
$38.43
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$37.25 -
$38.43
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$36.36
Resistance Level
$39.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.25)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.44
Wall Street Target
$43.25
(+16.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-22.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.1%
Profit Margin
12.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$35.05
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$34.04
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$37.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 55.3%)
$263.92
(+610%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: 55.3%)
$125.48
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 55.3%)
$106.66
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.43 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.26
Bull Case
$81.58
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.4
Base Case
$74.16
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.4
Bear Case
$25.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 10.3
Stabilization Target:
$40.56
(+9.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.1%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 1:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
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Net
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