NCDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$11.79
+0.04 (+0.34%)
▲
5d:
-0.17%
30d:
+8.56%
90d:
-3.52%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (26%)
Quality Score
27/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$10.54 – $11.68
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
7.4x
FAIR
vs 8.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$13.40
+13.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$11.16 / $12.32
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCDL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.91
Based on 2.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCDL is currently trading at $11.79, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.54 to $11.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.16, while resistance sits at $12.32.
Market Sentiment: NCDL scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.40 (+13.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.16, while resistance sits at $12.32.
Market Sentiment: NCDL scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.40 (+13.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$10.54 -
$11.68
Company Quality Score
27/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
26.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$10.54 -
$11.68
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$11.16
Resistance Level
$12.32
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.40)
- WARNING: Composite score 27/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.39
Wall Street Target
$13.40
(+13.7%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.40
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$11.02
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$10.66
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$11.83
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 1.3%)
$32.95
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 1.3%)
$12.26
(+4%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 1.3%)
$10.42
(-12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.89
Bull Case
$23.17
(+97%)
Analyst growth 79.3%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$21.07
(+79%)
Market implied 79.3%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$7.99
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$13.09
(+11.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.0%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NCDL)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Mar 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Investor confidence was boosted as $NCDL CEO, Kencel Kenneth J., purchased 10,000 shares, increasing his total holdings to 123,058 shares.
Key Retail Themes:
CEO buy
Insider buying
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 6:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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