NCDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCDL - Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp
$11.02
-0.16 (-1.43%)
▼
5d:
-5.81%
30d:
-12.54%
90d:
-12.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCDL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCDL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.18
Based on 0.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCDL is currently trading at $11.02, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.63 to $12.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCDL scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.70 (+24.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.96. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCDL scores 19/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.70 (+24.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.63 -
$12.47
Company Quality Score
35/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (19/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.3% below Wall St target ($13.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.63 -
$12.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.96
Resistance Level
$12.38
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.17
Wall Street Target
$13.70
(+24.3%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.48
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.97
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.48
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$10.97
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -2.6%)
$28.95
(+163%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: -2.6%)
$10.18
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: -2.6%)
$8.65
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.94
Bull Case
$20.10
(+82%)
Analyst growth 63.4%, PE expands to 13.1
Base Case
$18.27
(+66%)
Market implied 63.4%, PE stable at 11.9
Bear Case
$7.60
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$12.75
(+15.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 4:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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