NCDL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NCDL - Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp
$12.15
0.08 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
-3.34%
30d:
-1.86%
90d:
-4.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCDL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NCDL shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.34
Based on 0.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NCDL is currently trading at $12.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.24 to $12.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCDL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.70 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NCDL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NCDL scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.70 (+12.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.24 -
$12.58
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($13.70)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.24 -
$12.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.01
Resistance Level
$12.83
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.91
Wall Street Target
$13.70
(+12.8%)
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.92
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$11.69
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$11.47
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$12.18
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -2.6%)
$28.62
(+136%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -2.6%)
$11.22
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -2.6%)
$9.54
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.98 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.93
Bull Case
$21.93
(+81%)
Analyst growth 65.2%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$19.94
(+64%)
Market implied 65.2%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$8.21
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.4
Stabilization Target:
$12.90
(+6.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 10:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NCDL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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