Nephros (NEPH) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$3.31
+0.24 (+7.82%)
▲
5d:
+7.12%
30d:
-5.97%
90d:
-28.43%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (88%)
Quality Score
58/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$3.12 – $3.58
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
15.8x
CHEAP
vs 26.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$6.08
+83.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$2.72 / $3.50
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NEPH appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -15.5% annual earnings decline despite 450% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.91
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.15
46.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NEPH is currently trading at $3.31, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.12 to $3.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.8) compared to its historical average (26.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 450.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEPH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $2.72, while resistance sits at $3.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEPH scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.08 (+83.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEPH is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $2.72, while resistance sits at $3.50. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 7.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEPH scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.08 (+83.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.12 -
$3.58
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$3.12 -
$3.58
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$2.72
Resistance Level
$3.50
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+7.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 83.8% below Wall St target ($6.08)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 71/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.76
Wall Street Target
$6.08
(+83.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
450.0%
Profit Margin
8.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.8 vs 26.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.98
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.68
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.41
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→26)
$4.00
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 23.5%)
$7.86
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.8, Growth: 23.5%)
$6.24
(+89%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 23.5%)
$5.30
(+60%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.17
Bull Case
$4.17
(+26%)
Analyst growth 23.5%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$3.79
(+15%)
Market implied 23.5%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$2.09
(-37%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.8 to 26.1
Stabilization Target:
$5.48
(+65.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+65.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NEPH)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 21, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits message suggests $NEPH is in a chart squeeze mode, with 100.0% of sentiment being bullish.
Key Retail Themes:
Technical Analysis
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 6:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NEPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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