NEXA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NEXA - Nexa Resources S.A. Common Shares
$12.24
0.44 (3.73%)
▲
5d:
-1.61%
30d:
-8.25%
90d:
-7.34%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NEXA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NEXA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.23
Based on 13.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.64
40.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NEXA is currently trading at $12.24, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.24 to $14.13. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.8) compared to its historical average (5.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6235.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.69, while resistance sits at $13.36. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEXA scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.70 (+20.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.69, while resistance sits at $13.36. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEXA scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.70 (+20.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.24 -
$14.13
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
36th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 36th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.1% below Wall St target ($14.70)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 26% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.24 -
$14.13
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.09
(8.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.69
Resistance Level
$13.36
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.83
Wall Street Target
$14.70
(+20.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6235.0%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.8 vs 5.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.02
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.91
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.92
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→6)
$13.28
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 21.9%)
$118.00
(+864%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.8, Growth: 21.9%)
$22.15
(+81%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.3, Growth: 21.9%)
$18.83
(+54%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (6x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
Bull Case
$20.23
(+65%)
Analyst growth 53.0%, PE expands to 6.3
Base Case
$18.39
(+50%)
Market implied 53.0%, PE stable at 5.8
Bear Case
$8.18
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.8 to 5.7
Stabilization Target:
$18.22
(+48.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NEXA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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