NEXA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NEXA - Nexa Resources S.A. Common Shares
$11.48
0.32 (2.87%)
▲
5d:
-8.31%
30d:
-9.18%
90d:
-10.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NEXA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NEXA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.35
Based on 11.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.46
41.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NEXA is currently trading at $11.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.03 to $12.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.5) compared to its historical average (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6235.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.13, while resistance sits at $13.47.
Market Sentiment: NEXA scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.04 (+22.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.13, while resistance sits at $13.47.
Market Sentiment: NEXA scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.04 (+22.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.03 -
$12.94
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
36th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 36th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.3% below Wall St target ($14.04)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.03 -
$12.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.02
(8.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.13
Resistance Level
$13.47
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.46
Wall Street Target
$14.04
(+22.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6235.0%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.5 vs 5.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.33
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.30
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.37
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→6)
$13.54
(+18%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.3%)
$109.09
(+850%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.5, Growth: 18.3%)
$19.01
(+66%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.9, Growth: 18.3%)
$16.16
(+41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (5x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 5.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
Bull Case
$19.48
(+70%)
Analyst growth 58.7%, PE expands to 5.9
Base Case
$17.71
(+54%)
Market implied 58.7%, PE stable at 5.3
Bear Case
$7.59
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.5 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$18.57
(+61.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+61.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 9:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:53 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NEXA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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