NEXA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NEXA - Nexa Resources S.A. Common Shares
$15.40
1.33 (9.45%)
▲
5d:
+8.6%
30d:
+16.49%
90d:
+8.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NEXA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NEXA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.04
Based on 12.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.51
24.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NEXA is currently trading at $15.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.72 to $14.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6235.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $15.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEXA scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NEXA is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $15.53. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 9.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: NEXA scores 13/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.72 -
$14.47
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
23.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (13/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+9.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.88)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.72 -
$14.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.42
Resistance Level
$15.53
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.99
Wall Street Target
$14.88
(-3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6235.0%
Profit Margin
8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 5.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.54
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$13.72
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$12.95
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$15.30
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 21.7%)
$111.57
(+625%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 21.7%)
$27.77
(+80%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: 21.7%)
$23.60
(+53%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.09
Bull Case
$24.07
(+56%)
Analyst growth 47.5%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$21.88
(+42%)
Market implied 47.5%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$10.08
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$18.19
(+18.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NEXA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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