NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$77.45
1.01 (1.32%)
▲
5d:
-1.09%
30d:
-6.71%
90d:
-17.19%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.10
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $77.45, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.13 to $84.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.67 (+31.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $75.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $101.67 (+31.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$78.13 -
$84.79
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 31.3% below Wall St target ($101.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.13 -
$84.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.85
Resistance Level
$84.58
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$101.67
(+31.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 10.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.28
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$73.17
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$71.12
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→11)
$77.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 7.6%)
$219.85
(+184%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 7.6%)
$96.46
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 7.6%)
$81.99
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.40
Bull Case
$91.28
(+17%)
Analyst growth 6.0%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$82.98
(+6%)
Market implied 6.0%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$53.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.6 to 10.5
Stabilization Target:
$84.59
(+9.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 10:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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