National Fuel Gas (NFG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$76.43
0.17 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
-3.24%
30d:
-8.15%
90d:
-2.3%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.60
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.88
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $76.43, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.41 to $83.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFG scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+21.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $75.03. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFG scores 76/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+21.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$78.41 -
$83.25
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (76/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.7% below Wall St target ($93.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 23% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.41 -
$83.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$75.03
Resistance Level
$80.89
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.23
Wall Street Target
$93.00
(+21.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.97
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$75.52
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$75.06
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$76.30
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 2.7%)
$165.18
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 2.7%)
$82.84
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 2.7%)
$70.42
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.21
Bull Case
$86.91
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.6%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$79.01
(+3%)
Market implied 3.6%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$51.86
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$77.69
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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