NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$82.72
0.41 (0.49%)
▲
5d:
+2.45%
30d:
+4.25%
90d:
-0.32%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NFG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$92.94
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.71
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $82.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $78.48 to $81.99. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.50 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $83.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NFG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.50 (+19.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$78.48 -
$81.99
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($98.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$78.48 -
$81.99
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.35
Resistance Level
$83.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.57
Wall Street Target
$98.50
(+19.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Profit Margin
27.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.89
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$83.47
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$84.05
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$81.88
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 2.0%)
$171.40
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 2.0%)
$87.42
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 2.0%)
$74.31
(-10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.54
Bull Case
$93.66
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.2%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$85.15
(+3%)
Market implied 3.2%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$56.08
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 2:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:23 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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