National Fuel Gas (NFG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$81.00
-1.33 (-1.62%)
▼
5d:
-3.03%
30d:
-0.88%
90d:
+5.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NFG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$97.46
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.52
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $81.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $81.22 to $83.53. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $80.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+13.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $80.87. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+13.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$81.22 -
$83.53
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($92.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with 1.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$81.22 -
$83.53
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.87
Resistance Level
$84.35
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.64
Wall Street Target
$92.00
(+13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$81.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$82.14
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$82.71
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.83
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$175.37
(+117%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 4.5%)
$92.54
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 4.5%)
$78.66
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.17
Bull Case
$96.13
(+19%)
Analyst growth 6.1%, PE expands to 12.6
Base Case
$87.39
(+8%)
Market implied 6.1%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$55.98
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 8:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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