National Fuel Gas (NFG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$80.93
1.62 (2.04%)
▲
5d:
+3.25%
30d:
+2.95%
90d:
-1.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.57
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $80.93, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $77.40 to $80.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.9) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $81.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$77.40 -
$80.49
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($93.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with 1.1% revenue growth
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$77.40 -
$80.49
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.78
Resistance Level
$81.33
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.86
Wall Street Target
$93.00
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$82.06
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$83.21
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$84.38
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$80.78
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.8%)
$160.54
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 2.8%)
$87.81
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 2.8%)
$74.64
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.13
Bull Case
$91.16
(+13%)
Analyst growth 4.5%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$82.87
(+2%)
Market implied 4.5%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$53.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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