National Fuel Gas (NFG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$75.69
+1.03 (+1.38%)
▲
5d:
-1.11%
30d:
-6.66%
90d:
-7.14%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence (80%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$76.45 – $80.51
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.2x
FAIR
vs 10.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$93.00
+22.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$73.01 / $81.27
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: NFG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$91.57
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $75.69, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $76.45 to $80.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.2) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $73.01, while resistance sits at $81.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $73.01, while resistance sits at $81.27.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 56/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $93.00 (+22.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$76.45 -
$80.51
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$76.45 -
$80.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$73.01
Resistance Level
$81.27
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (56/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.9% below Wall St target ($93.00)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (56/100) — watch for confirmation
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.16
Wall Street Target
$93.00
(+22.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.8%
Profit Margin
26.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$75.01
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$74.33
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$73.66
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$75.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.8%)
$160.54
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 2.8%)
$82.13
(+9%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 2.8%)
$69.81
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.07
Bull Case
$86.54
(+14%)
Analyst growth 5.4%, PE expands to 11.6
Base Case
$78.67
(+4%)
Market implied 5.4%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$50.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.2 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$77.48
(+2.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NFG)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 22, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits users express bullish sentiment towards $NFG, citing opposition from Democrats to lower natural gas prices in New York State and their push for green energy as reasons for optimism.
Key Retail Themes:
Political environment's impact on natural gas prices
Perception of Democratic opposition to lower prices
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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