NFG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NFG - National Fuel Gas Co.
$82.48
-1.46 (-1.74%)
âŧ
5d:
+0.68%
30d:
+0.51%
90d:
+1.49%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NFG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NFG is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.69
Based on 3.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.31
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NFG is currently trading at $82.48, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $80.66 to $82.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFG scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NFG is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $80.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NFG scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.00 (+11.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$80.66 -
$82.82
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
43.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($92.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.9% growth with 1.1% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$80.66 -
$82.82
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.33
Resistance Level
$84.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.96
Wall Street Target
$92.00
(+11.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.6%
Profit Margin
26.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.0 vs 10.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.05
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$85.64
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$87.27
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$82.78
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 2.0%)
$160.21
(+94%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: 2.0%)
$87.52
(+6%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.3, Growth: 2.0%)
$74.39
(-10%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.21
Bull Case
$96.34
(+17%)
Analyst growth 4.3%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$87.58
(+6%)
Market implied 4.3%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$57.08
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:11 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:11 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NFG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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