Nomura (NMR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$10.86
0.32 (3.04%)
▲
5d:
+2.26%
30d:
+9.59%
90d:
+24.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
Get Alerted When NMR Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.30
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $10.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.67 to $10.40. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 14.6) compared to its historical average (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.94. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$9.67 -
$10.40
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.31)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 7.6% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.67 -
$10.40
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.14
Resistance Level
$10.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.57
Wall Street Target
$10.31
(-5.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 11.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.69
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$12.57
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$13.53
(+25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -10.7%)
$10.96
(+1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: -10.7%)
$7.92
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.7, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.36
(-41%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.87
Bull Case
$9.93
(-9%)
Analyst growth -14.3%, PE expands to 13.3
Base Case
$9.03
(-17%)
Market implied -14.3%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$7.17
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 3:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:18 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Capital Markets Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Capital Markets by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
SCHW
Charles Schwab Corp |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$125 | 58 HOLD |
|
FUTU
Futu Holdings Ltd |
STRONG BUY
19 analysts |
$161 | 43 HOLD |
|
MS
Morgan Stanley |
HOLD
25 analysts |
$237 | 59 HOLD |
|
RIOT
Riot Platforms, Inc. |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$32 | 50 HOLD |
|
HOOD
Robinhood Markets Inc |
BUY
21 analysts |
$129 | 45 HOLD |
