NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$8.64
-0.37 (-4.11%)
▼
5d:
-1.93%
30d:
+5.11%
90d:
+10.49%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.99
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $8.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.08 to $8.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: NMR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$8.08 -
$8.79
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($9.35)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.08 -
$8.79
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.89
Resistance Level
$8.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.59
Wall Street Target
$9.35
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
27.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.74
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$8.83
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$8.93
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.63
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -10.7%)
$11.84
(+37%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.30
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: -10.7%)
$5.35
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.74
Bull Case
$9.98
(+16%)
Analyst growth 0.7%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$9.08
(+5%)
Market implied 0.7%, PE stable at 12.2
Bear Case
$6.13
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 7:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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