Nomura (NMR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$9.80
0.06 (0.67%)
▲
5d:
-2.25%
30d:
-7.77%
90d:
+3.98%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NMR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NMR is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.43
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $9.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.87 to $10.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.22 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.54. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 80/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.22 (+15.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.87 -
$10.54
Company Quality Score
69/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (80/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($11.22)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 20% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.87 -
$10.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.55
Resistance Level
$10.23
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 5, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.05
Wall Street Target
$11.22
(+15.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.05
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$10.38
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$10.73
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.78
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -10.7%)
$11.09
(+14%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -10.7%)
$7.09
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.03
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.84
Bull Case
$9.51
(-2%)
Analyst growth -11.2%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$8.64
(-11%)
Market implied -11.2%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$6.62
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 3:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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