Nomura (NMR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$8.98
-0.06 (-0.66%)
▼
5d:
-2.81%
30d:
-8.09%
90d:
-8.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
1d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NMR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.43
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.61
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $8.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.36 to $10.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (11.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.22 (+24.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.93. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.22 (+24.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.36 -
$10.19
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($11.22)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.36 -
$10.19
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.93
Resistance Level
$9.72
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.05
Wall Street Target
$11.22
(+24.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 11.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.02
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$9.05
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$9.09
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.98
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -10.7%)
$10.79
(+20%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.55
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: -10.7%)
$5.56
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.85
Bull Case
$8.72
(-3%)
Analyst growth -12.3%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$7.93
(-12%)
Market implied -12.3%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$6.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 26, 2026 3:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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