NMR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NMR - Nomura Holdings, Inc
$9.76
0.04 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
-0.52%
90d:
+20.33%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NMR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.18
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NMR is currently trading at $9.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.59 to $9.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NMR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.04. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NMR scores 64/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.59 -
$9.91
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (64/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($10.31)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 64/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.59 -
$9.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.45
Resistance Level
$10.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.04
Wall Street Target
$10.31
(+6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.0%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.14
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$10.57
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$11.03
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$9.73
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -10.7%)
$10.91
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: -10.7%)
$7.09
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: -10.7%)
$6.02
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$9.34
(-4%)
Analyst growth -10.2%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$8.49
(-13%)
Market implied -10.2%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$6.43
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 2:08 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:08 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NMR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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