Nelnet (NNI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NNI - Nelnet, Inc. Class A
$126.33
0.81 (0.65%)
â˛
5d:
-1.32%
30d:
+1.04%
90d:
-5.27%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NNI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NNI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$187.73
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$116.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NNI is currently trading at $126.33, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.32 to $126.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.8) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NNI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NNI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $123.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$124.32 -
$126.92
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($125.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with -30.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.32 -
$126.92
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$123.56
Resistance Level
$128.79
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.77
Wall Street Target
$125.00
(-0.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-30.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.8%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.28
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$129.06
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$130.87
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.84
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.6%)
$253.77
(+102%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 14.6%)
$188.69
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 14.6%)
$160.39
(+28%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.37
Bull Case
$141.18
(+13%)
Analyst growth 1.6%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$128.34
(+2%)
Market implied 1.6%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$85.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NNI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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