Nelnet (NNI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$126.46
-1.87 (-1.46%)
âŧ
5d:
-0.88%
30d:
-0.37%
90d:
-0.63%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (71%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$123.16 â $128.06
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.5x
FAIR
vs 14.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$135.00
+6.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$120.10 / $134.58
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NNI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$200.25
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$124.34
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NNI is currently trading at $126.46, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $123.16 to $128.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NNI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $120.10, while resistance sits at $134.57.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NNI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $120.10, while resistance sits at $134.57.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$123.16 -
$128.06
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$123.16 -
$128.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$120.10
Resistance Level
$134.58
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($135.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with -10.8% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.45
Wall Street Target
$135.00
(+6.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.6%
Profit Margin
18.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.5 vs 14.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$127.22
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$127.98
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$128.75
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14â14)
PE COMPRESSION
$126.50
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 16.2%)
$272.66
(+116%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 16.2%)
$198.42
(+57%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.3, Growth: 16.2%)
$168.66
(+33%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.32
Bull Case
$168.74
(+33%)
Analyst growth 19.5%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$153.40
(+21%)
Market implied 19.5%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$87.26
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NNI)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Jun 25, 2024
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on NNI are bullish (sentiment score +0.59) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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NEUTRAL
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