Nelnet (NNI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NNI - Nelnet, Inc. Class A
$123.57
0.49 (0.40%)
▲
5d:
-1.17%
30d:
-1.3%
90d:
-8.64%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NNI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NNI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$189.02
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$117.37
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NNI is currently trading at $123.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $124.65 to $127.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.4) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NNI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NNI scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NNI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $121.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NNI scores 22/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$124.65 -
$127.54
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (22/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($130.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with -30.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$124.65 -
$127.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$121.88
Resistance Level
$128.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.37
Wall Street Target
$130.00
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-30.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-62.8%
Profit Margin
20.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
14.4 vs 14.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.31
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$125.06
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$125.81
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$123.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$264.51
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$186.31
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 14.7%)
$158.36
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.37
Bull Case
$139.11
(+13%)
Analyst growth 2.7%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$126.46
(+2%)
Market implied 2.7%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$83.69
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NNI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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