NP
Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
Insurance Agents, Brokers & Service
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Neptune Insurance (NP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$28.13
-0.09 (-0.32%)
▼
5d:
-1.47%
30d:
-3.57%
90d:
-12.29%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
MODERATE Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
54/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$27.98 – $29.30
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
41.8x
FAIR
vs 44.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$34.27
+21.4% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$26.72 / $30.30
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.28
Based on 12.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $28.13, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.98 to $29.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.8) is in line with its historical norms (44.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 103.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.72, while resistance sits at $30.30.
Market Sentiment: NP scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.27 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.72, while resistance sits at $30.30.
Market Sentiment: NP scores 66/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.27 (+21.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$27.98 -
$29.30
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$27.98 -
$29.30
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$26.72
Resistance Level
$30.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (66/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.4% below Wall St target ($34.27)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 66/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.78
Wall Street Target
$34.27
(+21.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
103.9%
Profit Margin
22.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.8 vs 44.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.54
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$26.88
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$26.24
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→45)
$28.19
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.8, Growth: 21.1%)
$50.15
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.1%)
$23.84
(-16%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 21.1%)
$20.26
(-28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 41.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.68
Bull Case
$34.08
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$28.22
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$21.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.8 to 44.9
Stabilization Target:
$30.33
(+7.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NP)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 20, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
StockTwits is currently bullish about $NP with one user expressing optimism about the company having 'No Problems anymore'. No recent news articles were available for analysis.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 2:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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