NP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NP - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$33.36
0.80 (2.46%)
▲
5d:
+5.2%
30d:
+11.65%
90d:
+22.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.45
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $33.36, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.56 to $32.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 49.5) is in line with its historical norms (45.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $33.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$30.56 -
$32.71
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.54)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.56 -
$32.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.70
Resistance Level
$33.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
49.51
Wall Street Target
$34.54
(+3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
49.5 vs 45.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$34.39
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$35.46
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$36.56
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 50→45)
PE COMPRESSION
$33.30
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 49.5, Growth: 23.0%)
$62.11
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 23.0%)
$25.18
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 23.0%)
$21.40
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 41.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.81
Bull Case
$40.28
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$33.36
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$25.52
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 3:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Trevor R Burgess
BUY
50000 shares
2026-03-13
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