Neptune Insurance (NP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NP - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$31.60
0.46 (1.48%)
â˛
5d:
-5.39%
30d:
+2.7%
90d:
+16.65%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
Get Alerted When NP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.45
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $31.60, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.49 to $33.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 46.9) is in line with its historical norms (45.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NP scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $31.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NP scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$31.49 -
$33.51
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($34.54)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.49 -
$33.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.03
Resistance Level
$35.11
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
46.90
Wall Street Target
$34.54
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.1% premium
PE vs Historical
46.9 vs 45.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.95
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$32.30
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$32.65
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 47â45)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.61
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 46.9, Growth: 23.0%)
$58.84
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 23.0%)
$25.30
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 23.0%)
$21.51
(-32%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 41.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.76
Bull Case
$38.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$31.60
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$24.17
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 AM
đĨ Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance Brokers Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance Brokers by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co |
BUY
22 analysts |
$292 | 44 HOLD |
|
WTW
Willis Towers Watson PLC |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$380 | 51 HOLD |
|
AON
Aon PLC |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$390 | 57 HOLD |
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group HolâĻ |
BUY
13 analysts |
$51 | 43 HOLD |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan CompaniâĻ |
SELL
20 analysts |
$211 | 49 HOLD |