Neptune Insurance (NP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NP - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$29.38
0.98 (3.47%)
â˛
5d:
-0.25%
30d:
+5.82%
90d:
-2.86%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.28
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $29.38, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.45 to $29.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 42.5) is in line with its historical norms (45.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $27.42, while resistance sits at $30.38. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.12 (+20.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $27.42, while resistance sits at $30.38. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 43/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.12 (+20.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$27.45 -
$29.79
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (43/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.2% below Wall St target ($34.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.45 -
$29.79
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$27.42
Resistance Level
$30.38
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
42.54
Wall Street Target
$34.12
(+20.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
42.5 vs 45.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$27.32
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$26.80
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 43â45)
$28.41
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 42.5, Growth: 20.1%)
$49.21
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.1%)
$22.97
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 20.1%)
$19.53
(-31%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 41.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.69
Bull Case
$34.28
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$28.39
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$21.72
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 42.5 to 45.1
Stabilization Target:
$30.10
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 12:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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