Neptune Insurance (NP) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NP - Neptune Insurance Holdings Inc.
$27.98
0.74 (2.72%)
▲
5d:
+1.71%
30d:
-15.93%
90d:
-16.2%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 11, 2026
Get Alerted When NP Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.45
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.53
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NP is currently trading at $27.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $28.21 to $33.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 40.4) compared to its historical average (45.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 3.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.61, while resistance sits at $30.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.38 (+26.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $26.61, while resistance sits at $30.88.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.38 (+26.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$28.21 -
$33.25
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($34.38)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$28.21 -
$33.25
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$26.61
Resistance Level
$30.88
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
40.43
Wall Street Target
$34.38
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
3.1%
Profit Margin
21.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
40.4 vs 45.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.23
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$25.26
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$24.33
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→45)
$27.26
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 40.4, Growth: 23.0%)
$50.72
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 23.0%)
$25.59
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 23.0%)
$21.75
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 41.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.66
Bull Case
$32.89
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 43.4
Base Case
$27.24
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 41.3
Bear Case
$20.84
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 40.4 to 45.3
Stabilization Target:
$30.52
(+12.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is NP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Insurance Brokers Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Insurance Brokers by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
AJG
Arthur J Gallagher & Co |
BUY
22 analysts |
$290 | 74 BUY |
|
WTW
Willis Towers Watson PLC |
STRONG BUY
18 analysts |
$379 | 66 BUY |
|
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Group Hol… |
BUY
13 analysts |
$51 | 67 BUY |
|
AON
Aon PLC |
HOLD
20 analysts |
$384 | 55 HOLD |
|
MMC
Marsh & McLennan Compani… |
SELL
20 analysts |
$211 | 49 HOLD |