Northpointe Bancshares (NPB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.77
-0.07 (-0.44%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.29%
30d:
-0.32%
90d:
-9.52%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (73%)
Quality Score
44/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$15.44 â $15.96
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
6.3x
FAIR
vs 6.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$18.08
+14.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.64 / $16.72
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NPB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.43
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.41
3.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPB is currently trading at $15.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.44 to $15.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.08 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPB is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $15.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.08 (+14.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.44 -
$15.96
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$15.44 -
$15.96
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$15.64
Resistance Level
$16.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.4% growth with -13.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.28
Wall Street Target
$18.08
(+14.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Profit Margin
33.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.99
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$16.21
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$16.44
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â6)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.70
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 20.1%)
$86.34
(+448%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 20.1%)
$27.32
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 20.1%)
$23.22
(+47%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.14
Bull Case
$20.44
(+30%)
Analyst growth 17.3%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$18.58
(+18%)
Market implied 17.3%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$10.77
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 11, 2026 9:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:56 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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NEUTRAL
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