NPK International (NPKI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPKI - NPK International Inc.
$10.76
-0.33 (-2.98%)
▼
5d:
+0.84%
30d:
-8.11%
90d:
-25.02%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPKI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPKI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.97
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.64
21.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPKI is currently trading at $10.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.99 to $12.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.2) compared to its historical average (22.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPKI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPKI scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.33 (+89.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPKI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NPKI scores 34/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.33 (+89.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.99 -
$12.35
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (34/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 89.0% below Wall St target ($20.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.99 -
$12.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.55
Resistance Level
$11.53
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.17
Wall Street Target
$20.33
(+89.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.5%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 22.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.78
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$8.89
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$8.08
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→23)
$10.78
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 13.9%)
$18.41
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$15.92
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 13.9%)
$13.53
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.46
Bull Case
$16.62
(+55%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 26.5
Base Case
$15.11
(+40%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 24.1
Bear Case
$7.54
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 22.9
Stabilization Target:
$14.35
(+33.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPKI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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