NPK International (NPKI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NPKI - NPK International Inc.
$11.79
-0.04 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
+0.6%
30d:
-11.02%
90d:
-16.62%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPKI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NPKI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.26
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.82
14.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NPKI is currently trading at $11.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.95 to $13.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.8) compared to its historical average (23.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 41.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPKI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.20, while resistance sits at $12.80.
Market Sentiment: NPKI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.33 (+72.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NPKI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.20, while resistance sits at $12.80.
Market Sentiment: NPKI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.33 (+72.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$11.95 -
$13.39
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 72.5% below Wall St target ($20.33)
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$11.95 -
$13.39
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.20
Resistance Level
$12.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.81
Wall Street Target
$20.33
(+72.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.5%
Profit Margin
14.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.8 vs 23.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.99
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$10.24
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$9.54
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→23)
$11.77
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$18.91
(+60%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.8, Growth: 13.9%)
$17.44
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.0, Growth: 13.9%)
$14.83
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.48
Bull Case
$16.99
(+44%)
Analyst growth 30.6%, PE expands to 27.1
Base Case
$15.45
(+31%)
Market implied 30.6%, PE stable at 24.7
Bear Case
$8.04
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.8 to 23.2
Stabilization Target:
$14.54
(+23.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 10:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:34 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is NPKI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gregg Piontek
SELL
15000 shares
2026-04-09
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