NTB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NTB - The Bank of N.T. Butterfield & Son Limited
$60.31
0.84 (1.41%)
▲
5d:
+3.48%
30d:
+3.79%
90d:
-1.11%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NTB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NTB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$105.66
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$65.61
8.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NTB is currently trading at $60.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.01 to $59.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $60.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NTB is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $60.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 51/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$58.01 -
$59.37
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (51/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($66.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.01 -
$59.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$57.00
Resistance Level
$60.75
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.12
Wall Street Target
$66.00
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.2%
Profit Margin
37.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.47
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$58.63
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$57.81
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$60.54
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 17.9%)
$242.05
(+301%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 17.9%)
$98.93
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 17.9%)
$84.09
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.69
Bull Case
$85.42
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.6%, PE expands to 11.5
Base Case
$77.66
(+29%)
Market implied 30.6%, PE stable at 10.5
Bear Case
$40.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$63.16
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 11:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NTB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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