NTR Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares Agricultural Chemicals

Nutrien Ltd. Common Shares (NTR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$71.43
-0.22 (-0.31%) ▼
5d: -1.08% 30d: +2.23% 90d: +4.67%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (46%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$68.64 – $71.37
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.0x FAIR
vs 14.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$77.49
+8.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$68.52 / $73.67
Trend: Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NTR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Nov 12, 2026 at $71.14 · last confirmed Nov 12, 2026

Strength: 5.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$93.23
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$57.89
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.1x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: NTR is currently trading at $71.43, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $68.64 to $71.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.0) is in line with its historical norms (14.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, NTR is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $68.52, while resistance sits at $73.67.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 44/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $68.64 - $71.37
Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 46.2%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $68.64 - $71.37
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED
Support Level $68.52
Resistance Level $73.67
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 12, 2026

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Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (44/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($77.49)
  • WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 14.03
Wall Street Target $77.49 (+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -37.6%
Profit Margin 8.0%
Valuation Discount vs History -0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical 14.0 vs 14.1 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -0.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $71.58 (0%)
2-Year Target $71.51 (0%)
3-Year Target $71.44 (0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 14→14) $71.81 (+0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 6.6%) $122.94 (+72%)
Base: (SPY PE: 14.0, Growth: 6.6%) $86.82 (+21%)
Bear: (PE: 11.9, Growth: 6.6%) $73.80 (+3%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.58
Bull Case $88.55 (+24%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case $80.50 (+12%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case $49.08 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.0 to 14.1
Stabilization Target: $72.03 (+0.5%)
PE Expansion Potential: +0.5%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NTR)

Bullish 2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 9, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Nutrien indefinitely shuts down nitrogen operations at Trinidad's Point Lisas Facility.
Key Retail Themes: Company operations Technical Analysis
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 3:23 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:23 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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