CF Industries (CF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.

AGRICULTURAL CHEMICALS
$133.07
-2.04 (-1.51%) â–ŧ
5d: -3.44%
30d: +10.88%
90d: +24.88%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 2, 2026 at $139.27 · last confirmed Sep 9, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
ℹī¸ NEUTRAL: CF is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 0.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$63.12
Based on -12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$39.20
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $133.07, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $117.91 to $133.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.5) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $124.50, while resistance sits at $141.66.

Market Sentiment: CF scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range $117.91 - $133.20
Company Quality Score 33/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 36.7%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($125.04)
  • NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
  • WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $117.91 - $133.20
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY HIGH

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $124.50
Resistance Level $141.66
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Sep 11, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 12.49
Wall Street Target $125.04 (-6.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 99.6%
Profit Margin 27.1%
Valuation Premium vs History +0.9% premium
PE vs Historical 12.5 vs 12.2 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): +0.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $134.27 (+1%)
2-Year Target $135.48 (+2%)
3-Year Target $136.70 (+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) PE COMPRESSION $133.53 (+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -29.3%) $156.67 (+18%)
Base: (SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: -29.3%) $97.01 (-27%)
Bear: (PE: 10.6, Growth: -29.3%) $82.46 (-38%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.48
Bull Case $117.48 (-12%)
Analyst growth -21.0%, PE expands to 11.0
Base Case $106.80 (-20%)
Market implied -21.0%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case $91.87 (-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: September 13, 2026 9:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
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Sells
0
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NEUTRAL

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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CF price and gamma walls.

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