CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$118.30
-6.89 (-5.50%)
▼
5d:
-1.24%
30d:
+7.02%
90d:
-3.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
TODAY
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.95
Based on -17.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $118.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.99 to $124.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 115.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $117.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$110.99 -
$124.77
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($125.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.99 -
$124.77
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$117.72
Resistance Level
$130.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.45
Wall Street Target
$125.25
(+5.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
115.1%
Profit Margin
23.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$115.70
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$113.15
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$110.66
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$117.96
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -38.5%)
$156.20
(+32%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.4, Growth: -38.5%)
$86.24
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: -38.5%)
$73.30
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.10
Bull Case
$128.23
(+8%)
Analyst growth -6.9%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$116.57
(-2%)
Market implied -6.9%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$85.13
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.4 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$126.10
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 5:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik M Mayer
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-17
Richard A Hoker
SELL
3499 shares
2026-03-17
Bert A Frost
SELL
6000 shares
2026-03-17
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