CF Industries (CF) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$123.30
5.21 (4.41%)
▲
5d:
+2.17%
30d:
+7.65%
90d:
+4.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CF shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
CF is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SPY Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 0.37% over the next 20 trading days; CF has been on it 1 day). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-10-30.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$82.70
Based on -9.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$51.35
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $123.30, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.81 to $120.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.4) compared to its historical average (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 99.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CF scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $123.58. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CF scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$114.81 -
$120.64
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($128.89)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$114.81 -
$120.64
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$114.05
Resistance Level
$123.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.43
Wall Street Target
$128.89
(+4.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
99.6%
Profit Margin
27.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 12.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.75
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$112.45
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$107.39
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→12)
$123.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -23.4%)
$171.08
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -23.4%)
$89.89
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: -23.4%)
$76.40
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.76 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.48
Bull Case
$113.87
(-8%)
Analyst growth -12.3%, PE expands to 9.6
Base Case
$103.52
(-16%)
Market implied -12.3%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$80.30
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.4 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$141.80
(+15.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 31, 2026 7:45 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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