NVMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$461.48
-14.42 (-3.03%)
▼
5d:
-1.1%
30d:
-9.22%
90d:
-6.97%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NVMI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$612.91
Based on 13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$380.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $461.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $472.93 to $559.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 36.7) is in line with its historical norms (39.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 0.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $431.65, while resistance sits at $552.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $603.38 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $431.65, while resistance sits at $552.39. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $603.38 (+26.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$472.93 -
$559.67
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($603.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$472.93 -
$559.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$431.65
Resistance Level
$552.39
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
36.71
Wall Street Target
$603.38
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
0.5%
Profit Margin
29.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
36.7 vs 39.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$466.38
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$457.05
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$447.91
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 37→39)
$475.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 36.7, Growth: 23.6%)
$898.10
(+89%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 23.6%)
$532.91
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 23.6%)
$452.97
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (37x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 42.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $11.28
Bull Case
$574.65
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 44.3
Base Case
$475.90
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 42.2
Bear Case
$364.06
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 38.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 36.7 to 39.0
Stabilization Target:
$505.65
(+6.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yaniv Garty
SELL
55 shares
2026-04-02
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