NVMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$376.99
-6.88 (-1.79%)
▼
5d:
-9.84%
30d:
-17.21%
90d:
-24.07%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NVMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: NVMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$665.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$412.93
8.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $376.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $384.26 to $439.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.6) compared to its historical average (38.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $371.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $532.00 (+41.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $371.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $532.00 (+41.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$384.26 -
$439.76
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.1% below Wall St target ($532.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 14% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$384.26 -
$439.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$371.52
Resistance Level
$431.58
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.60
Wall Street Target
$532.00
(+41.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.6 vs 38.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$339.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$305.36
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$274.83
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→38)
$379.41
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.6, Growth: 28.0%)
$790.28
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 28.0%)
$574.72
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 28.0%)
$488.51
(+30%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 48.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.99
Bull Case
$721.92
(+92%)
Analyst growth 71.0%, PE expands to 52.9
Base Case
$656.29
(+74%)
Market implied 71.0%, PE stable at 48.0
Bear Case
$261.03
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.6 to 38.1
Stabilization Target:
$520.45
(+38.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yaniv Garty
SELL
55 shares
2026-04-02
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