Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares (NVMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$310.63
-20.60 (-6.22%)
▼
5d:
-5.71%
30d:
-15.07%
90d:
-29.08%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$665.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$412.93
24.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $310.62, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $329.96 to $379.59. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.2) compared to its historical average (35.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $308.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $515.12 (+55.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $308.25. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 38/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (18th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $515.12 (+55.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$329.96 -
$379.59
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
18th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NVMI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 18th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (38/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 55.5% below Wall St target ($515.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$329.96 -
$379.59
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$25.69
(8.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$308.25
Resistance Level
$361.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.25
Wall Street Target
$515.13
(+55.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 35.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$298.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$268.29
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$241.46
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→36)
$356.51
(+8%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.2, Growth: 28.0%)
$694.33
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 28.0%)
$568.70
(+72%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 28.0%)
$483.40
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (40x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.00
Bull Case
$601.11
(+82%)
Analyst growth 70.8%, PE expands to 44.0
Base Case
$546.46
(+65%)
Market implied 70.8%, PE stable at 40.0
Bear Case
$217.62
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.2 to 35.8
Stabilization Target:
$489.04
(+47.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+47.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 1:20 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:20 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NVMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NVMI price and gamma walls.
