Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares (NVMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$386.60
1.40 (0.36%)
▲
5d:
+5.4%
30d:
+14.5%
90d:
-17.77%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: NVMI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$665.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$412.93
6.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $386.60, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $347.13 to $375.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 28.3) compared to its historical average (36.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $390.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $532.00 (+37.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $390.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 18/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $532.00 (+37.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$347.13 -
$375.39
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NVMI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (18/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 37.6% below Wall St target ($532.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$347.13 -
$375.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$343.50
Resistance Level
$390.40
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
28.30
Wall Street Target
$532.00
(+37.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
28.3 vs 36.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$355.29
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$326.51
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$300.06
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 28→37)
$386.99
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 28.3, Growth: 28.0%)
$810.42
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 28.0%)
$584.17
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 28.0%)
$496.54
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (48x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (28x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 47.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.05
Bull Case
$719.02
(+86%)
Analyst growth 69.7%, PE expands to 52.6
Base Case
$653.65
(+69%)
Market implied 69.7%, PE stable at 47.9
Bear Case
$261.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 40.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 28.3 to 36.5
Stabilization Target:
$498.60
(+29.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 6:46 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:46 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NVMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NVMI price and gamma walls.
