Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares (NVMI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NVMI - Nova Ltd. Ordinary Shares
$371.81
5.78 (1.58%)
▲
5d:
+5.42%
30d:
-8.4%
90d:
-33.56%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NVMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.9% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
NVMI is flagged by 1 backtest-validated scanner today
SOXX Bullish (stocks from this scanner have beaten SPY by a median 1.01% over the next 20 trading days; NVMI has been on it 4 days). Backtested on 8 months of scanner history vs the S&P 500, as of 2026-09-11.
See all of today's Best Signals in the free scanner →Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$665.03
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$412.93
10.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NVMI is currently trading at $371.81, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $357.71 to $401.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 27.2) compared to its historical average (37.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 2.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $335.47, while resistance sits at $387.71.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $532.00 (+43.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NVMI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $335.47, while resistance sits at $387.71.
Market Sentiment: NVMI scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $532.00 (+43.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$357.71 -
$401.65
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.5%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (85/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.1% below Wall St target ($532.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 85/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$357.71 -
$401.65
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$28.47
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$335.47
Resistance Level
$387.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.22
Wall Street Target
$532.00
(+43.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Profit Margin
28.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
27.2 vs 37.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$335.00
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$301.84
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$271.95
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→37)
$372.68
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.2, Growth: 28.0%)
$779.42
(+110%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 28.0%)
$577.58
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 28.0%)
$490.94
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 46.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.87
Bull Case
$698.86
(+88%)
Analyst growth 73.6%, PE expands to 51.2
Base Case
$635.33
(+71%)
Market implied 73.6%, PE stable at 46.5
Bear Case
$248.90
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 39.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 27.2 to 37.3
Stabilization Target:
$509.53
(+37.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 4:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NVMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Yaniv Garty
SELL
55 shares
2026-04-02
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Advanced NVMI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NVMI price and gamma walls.
