Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NWBI - Northwest Bancshares, Inc
$15.19
0.20 (1.33%)
▲
5d:
-0.78%
30d:
-1.56%
90d:
+0.53%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: NWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: NWBI is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.76
Based on 3.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.41
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWBI is currently trading at $15.19, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.11 to $15.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NWBI scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWBI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $15.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: NWBI scores 72/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (7th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$15.11 -
$15.51
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
7th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding NWBI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 7th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (72/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.29)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.11 -
$15.51
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.41
(2.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.54
Resistance Level
$15.52
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.47
Wall Street Target
$16.29
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.5%
Profit Margin
23.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.5 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.55
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.93
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$16.31
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.12
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 3.1%)
$32.49
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.5, Growth: 3.1%)
$16.67
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.9, Growth: 3.1%)
$14.17
(-7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.04
Bull Case
$23.01
(+52%)
Analyst growth 39.5%, PE expands to 15.9
Base Case
$20.92
(+38%)
Market implied 39.5%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$10.19
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 7:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NWBI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NWBI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NWBI price and gamma walls.
