Northwest Bancshares (NWBI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.13
-0.10 (-0.66%)
âŧ
5d:
-1.18%
30d:
+3.14%
90d:
-3.94%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
0d
Protect NWBI Gains
Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (75%)
Quality Score
50/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$14.85 â $15.46
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
10.4x
FAIR
vs 9.8x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$16.43
+8.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$15.09 / $16.07
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: NWBI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.9% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.04
Based on 3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.58
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NWBI is currently trading at $15.13, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.85 to $15.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $15.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NWBI is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $15.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$14.85 -
$15.46
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$14.85 -
$15.46
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.64
(4.2%)
Support Level
$15.09
Resistance Level
$16.07
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding NWBI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($16.43)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.41
Wall Street Target
$16.43
(+8.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1600.1%
Profit Margin
28.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.9% premium
PE vs Historical
10.4 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.42
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$15.71
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$16.01
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10â10)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.07
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 3.3%)
$31.84
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: 3.3%)
$16.69
(+10%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 3.3%)
$14.18
(-6%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.28 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$18.04
(+19%)
Analyst growth 7.7%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$16.40
(+8%)
Market implied 7.7%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$10.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (NWBI)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 2, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
28 small-cap banks, including $NWBI, showed bullish engulfing candles today with long shadows, indicating potential reversal.
Key Retail Themes:
technical analysis
reversal patterns
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 3:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:58 AM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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