Origin Bancorp (OBK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$54.00
+0.01 (+0.02%)
▲
5d:
-0.06%
30d:
+5.7%
90d:
-1.1%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (50%)
Quality Score
53/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$51.47 – $53.92
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
11.6x
FAIR
vs 11.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$60.40
+11.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$51.69 / $58.00
Trend: Sideways
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBK shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.14
Based on 6.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$44.79
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBK is currently trading at $54.00, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.47 to $53.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBK is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $51.69, while resistance sits at $58.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.40 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBK is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $51.69, while resistance sits at $58.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.40 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$51.47 -
$53.92
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$51.47 -
$53.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$51.69
Resistance Level
$58.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($60.40)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.56
Wall Street Target
$60.40
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
351.9%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.0% premium
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 11.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$54.54
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$55.09
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$55.64
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$53.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 9.3%)
$121.22
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 9.3%)
$70.56
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 9.3%)
$59.97
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.13
Bull Case
$67.49
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.1%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$61.35
(+14%)
Market implied 13.1%, PE stable at 13.1
Bear Case
$36.88
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 4:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:26 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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