Orange County Bancorp (OBT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$37.19
0.24 (0.65%)
▲
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
-0.83%
90d:
-1.22%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OBT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.42
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBT is currently trading at $37.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.45 to $38.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.82, while resistance sits at $39.49.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 12/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.82, while resistance sits at $39.49.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 12/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+16.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$37.45 -
$38.37
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (12/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.45 -
$38.37
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.82
Resistance Level
$39.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.92
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.3% premium
PE vs Historical
9.9 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.05
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$38.92
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$39.82
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.34
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$98.24
(+164%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.9, Growth: 8.7%)
$47.76
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$40.60
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.56
Bull Case
$42.81
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.3%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$38.92
(+5%)
Market implied 5.3%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$25.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 7:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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