Orange County Bancorp (OBT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$37.73
0.54 (1.45%)
▲
5d:
-0.24%
30d:
-0.11%
90d:
+0.13%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.8% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.42
Based on 6.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBT is currently trading at $37.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.42 to $38.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $38.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: OBT scores 71/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+14.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.42 -
$38.37
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (71/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 16% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.42 -
$38.37
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.82
Resistance Level
$38.61
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.06
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+14.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.8% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.79
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$39.87
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$40.99
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.89
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 8.7%)
$98.24
(+160%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 8.7%)
$48.45
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 8.7%)
$41.19
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.58
Bull Case
$42.85
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.7%, PE expands to 11.4
Base Case
$38.96
(+3%)
Market implied 4.7%, PE stable at 10.4
Bear Case
$25.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 05, 2026 9:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:28 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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