Orange County Bancorp (OBT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$38.28
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-0.31%
30d:
-1.71%
90d:
+6.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Get Alerted When OBT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.35
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.40
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBT is currently trading at $38.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $37.88 to $38.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.2) compared to its historical average (9.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.02. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 58/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.33 (+13.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$37.88 -
$38.78
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (58/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.33)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (58/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$37.88 -
$38.78
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.70
Resistance Level
$39.02
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.21
Wall Street Target
$43.33
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.5% premium
PE vs Historical
10.2 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.62
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$41.01
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$42.44
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.25
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 9.1%)
$98.27
(+157%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.2, Growth: 9.1%)
$49.73
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.7, Growth: 9.1%)
$42.27
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.61
Bull Case
$43.74
(+14%)
Analyst growth 3.9%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$39.76
(+4%)
Market implied 3.9%, PE stable at 10.6
Bear Case
$26.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:01 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is OBT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Michael J Gilfeather
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-19
Top Rated Banks - Regional Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Banks - Regional by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
USB
U.S. Bancorp |
BUY
24 analysts |
$70 | 61 BUY |
|
HBAN
Huntington Bancshares In… |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$20 | 62 BUY |
|
WAL
Western Alliance Bancorp… |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$93 | 61 BUY |
|
WTFC
Wintrust Financial Corpo… |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$180 | 59 HOLD |
|
FHN
First Horizon Corporation |
BUY
16 analysts |
$28 | 66 BUY |
