OBT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OBT - Orange County Bancorp, Inc. Common Stock
$38.25
0.48 (1.27%)
▲
5d:
+1.49%
30d:
+1.62%
90d:
+12.17%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: OBT is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.3% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.18
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OBT is currently trading at $38.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.75 to $38.01. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OBT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $39.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$36.75 -
$38.01
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($39.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.75 -
$38.01
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.20
Resistance Level
$39.17
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.00
Wall Street Target
$39.50
(+3.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
38.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.51
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$40.82
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$42.16
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$38.37
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 13.8%)
$116.98
(+206%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 13.8%)
$56.43
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 13.8%)
$47.97
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.52
Bull Case
$45.15
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.7%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$41.04
(+7%)
Market implied 8.7%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$25.68
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OBT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Michael J Gilfeather
BUY
200 shares
2026-03-19
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