OceanFirst Financial (OCFC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$18.16
+0.08 (+0.41%)
▲
5d:
-4.5%
30d:
+13.19%
90d:
-6.8%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
0d
Protect OCFC Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (35%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$16.01 – $18.05
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.0x
FAIR
vs 8.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$21.29
+17.8% upside
Options IV & Volume
30th pct IV
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$17.74 / $19.47
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OCFC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.50
Based on 14.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.04
17.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OCFC is currently trading at $18.16, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.01 to $18.05. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OCFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OCFC scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.29 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OCFC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $17.73. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OCFC scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.29 (+17.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.01 -
$18.05
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
30th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
34.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$16.01 -
$18.05
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.42
(7.8%)
Support Level
$17.74
Resistance Level
$19.47
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding OCFC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 30th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.02
Wall Street Target
$21.29
(+17.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
82.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-44.0%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.97
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$17.86
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$17.76
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$18.17
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 24.3%)
$86.09
(+376%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 24.3%)
$34.75
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 24.3%)
$29.53
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.69
Bull Case
$40.17
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$36.52
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 26.5
Bear Case
$12.42
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$18.50
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (OCFC)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish trader on StockTwits expresses optimism about $OCFC's earnings report, citing the company's strong earnings history. No recent news articles were found.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings report
strong earnings history
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 3:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OCFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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