ONE GAS (OGS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
OGS - ONE GAS, INC.
$78.25
2.70 (3.57%)
▲
5d:
+4.95%
30d:
+8.24%
90d:
-2.83%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 02, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OGS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: OGS shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$95.53
Based on 3.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.32
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OGS is currently trading at $78.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.13 to $75.80. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 39.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: OGS scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OGS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $78.30. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: OGS scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$72.13 -
$75.80
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($85.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$72.13 -
$75.80
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.09
Resistance Level
$78.30
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.61
Wall Street Target
$85.50
(+9.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.6%
Profit Margin
12.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 16.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$77.00
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$75.77
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$74.55
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$78.33
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.1%)
$106.09
(+36%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 2.1%)
$83.38
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 2.1%)
$70.87
(-9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.65
Bull Case
$89.94
(+19%)
Analyst growth 8.2%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$81.76
(+8%)
Market implied 8.2%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$51.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 16.4
Stabilization Target:
$82.21
(+5.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is OGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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