Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONB - Old National Bancorp
$25.66
0.06 (0.23%)
▲
5d:
-1.23%
30d:
-5.24%
90d:
+3.93%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.5% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.13
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONB is currently trading at $25.66, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.59 to $26.82. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ONB scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.82 (+16.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.09. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ONB scores 65/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.82 (+16.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$25.59 -
$26.82
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
89.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (65/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.82)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 65/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.59 -
$26.82
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.09
Resistance Level
$26.15
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.88
Wall Street Target
$29.82
(+16.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.9%
Profit Margin
33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.5% premium
PE vs Historical
8.9 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.04
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$26.44
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$26.83
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.68
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 10.9%)
$79.40
(+209%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$34.96
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 10.9%)
$29.72
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.28
Bull Case
$35.69
(+39%)
Analyst growth 26.7%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$32.44
(+26%)
Market implied 26.7%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$17.41
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 3:10 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:10 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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