ONB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONB - Old National Bancorp
$26.64
0.23 (0.87%)
▲
5d:
+0.57%
30d:
+1.56%
90d:
+11.14%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ONB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.69
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.54
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONB is currently trading at $26.64, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.76 to $26.68. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.82 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.00. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.82 (+11.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$25.76 -
$26.68
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.82)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.76 -
$26.68
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.73
Resistance Level
$27.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.21
Wall Street Target
$29.82
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.9%
Profit Margin
33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.44
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$28.26
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$29.11
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.8%)
$81.68
(+207%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 10.8%)
$36.28
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 10.8%)
$30.84
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.79 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.24
Bull Case
$37.53
(+41%)
Analyst growth 29.2%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$34.11
(+28%)
Market implied 29.2%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$17.96
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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