Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONB - Old National Bancorp
$24.58
-0.15 (-0.61%)
▼
5d:
-1.52%
30d:
-3.98%
90d:
-6.63%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ONB is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ONB is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.02
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONB is currently trading at $24.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.81 to $25.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.60 (+20.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $24.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.60 (+20.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.81 -
$25.67
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($29.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.81 -
$25.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.06
Resistance Level
$25.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.52
Wall Street Target
$29.60
(+20.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.9%
Profit Margin
33.3%
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.58
(0%)
2-Year Target
$24.58
(0%)
3-Year Target
$24.58
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$24.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.8%)
$77.92
(+217%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 10.8%)
$33.41
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 10.8%)
$28.40
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$34.75
(+41%)
Analyst growth 27.7%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$31.59
(+29%)
Market implied 27.7%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$16.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 10, 2026 6:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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