Old National Bancorp (ONB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ONB - Old National Bancorp
$25.16
0.57 (2.32%)
▲
5d:
+0.64%
30d:
+1.7%
90d:
-5.02%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ONB is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ONB is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.9% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.79
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.60
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ONB is currently trading at $25.16, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.65 to $25.36. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (8.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.30 (+16.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ONB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 54/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.30 (+16.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.65 -
$25.36
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (54/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($29.30)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (54/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.65 -
$25.36
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.23
Resistance Level
$25.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.75
Wall Street Target
$29.30
(+16.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
28.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.9%
Profit Margin
33.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 8.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.39
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$25.61
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$25.85
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.10
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.7%)
$77.40
(+208%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 10.7%)
$34.11
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 10.7%)
$28.99
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.88 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.26
Bull Case
$34.40
(+37%)
Analyst growth 27.2%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$31.28
(+24%)
Market implied 27.2%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$16.72
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ONB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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