ORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$15.56
-0.04 (-0.26%)
▼
5d:
+4.36%
30d:
+13.41%
90d:
+42.23%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ORN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.08
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.16
26.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $15.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.76 to $15.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.2) compared to its historical average (27.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.28 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.75. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.28 (+11.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.76 -
$15.10
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
31th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 31th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.28)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.76 -
$15.10
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.76
(11.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.11
Resistance Level
$14.75
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.23
Wall Street Target
$17.28
(+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
1.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.2 vs 27.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.55
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$13.60
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$12.72
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→27)
$15.57
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.2, Growth: 76.7%)
$52.52
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 76.7%)
$51.46
(+231%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 76.7%)
$43.74
(+181%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 38.76 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.40
Bull Case
$18.79
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 40.7
Base Case
$15.56
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 38.8
Bear Case
$11.90
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 34.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.2 to 27.2
Stabilization Target:
$19.04
(+22.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:27 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin J Shanfelter
SELL
90000 shares
2026-03-10
Quentin P Jr. Smith
SELL
10695 shares
2026-03-10
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