Orion Group (ORN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$8.41
-0.25 (-2.89%)
▼
5d:
-4.1%
30d:
-6.56%
90d:
-33.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ORN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ORN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.24
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.19
36.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $8.41, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.60 to $9.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.2) compared to its historical average (24.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.15, while resistance sits at $9.26.
Market Sentiment: ORN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.98 (+78.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.15, while resistance sits at $9.26.
Market Sentiment: ORN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Implied Volatility is high (100th percentile), indicating expensive options premiums. This environment often favors selling options or covered calls to generate income. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.98 (+78.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.60 -
$9.19
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
100th percentile
(EVENT RISK)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Options expensive (IV 100th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 78.2% below Wall St target ($14.98)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.60 -
$9.19
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.70
(20.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.15
Resistance Level
$9.26
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.20
Wall Street Target
$14.98
(+78.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 24.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.71
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$7.07
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$6.48
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→25)
$8.41
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 72.6%)
$29.36
(+249%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 72.6%)
$28.38
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 72.6%)
$24.13
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.88 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.37
Bull Case
$10.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.0
Base Case
$8.41
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.9
Bear Case
$6.43
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.2 to 24.9
Stabilization Target:
$10.91
(+29.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 12:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORN price and gamma walls.
