ORN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$9.27
0.09 (0.98%)
▲
5d:
-6.65%
30d:
-28.25%
90d:
-32.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ORN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ORN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.58
31.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $9.27, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.34 to $12.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.6) compared to its historical average (26.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.97, while resistance sits at $10.65.
Market Sentiment: ORN scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.32 (+65.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.97, while resistance sits at $10.65.
Market Sentiment: ORN scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.32 (+65.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.34 -
$12.44
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
35th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 35th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 65.2% below Wall St target ($15.32)
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.34 -
$12.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.94
(10.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.97
Resistance Level
$10.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.63
Wall Street Target
$15.32
(+65.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.6 vs 26.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.57
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$7.93
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$7.34
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→26)
$9.25
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 77.1%)
$31.29
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 77.1%)
$30.44
(+228%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 77.1%)
$25.87
(+179%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 36.23 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.26
Bull Case
$11.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 38.0
Base Case
$9.27
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 36.2
Bear Case
$7.09
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 32.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.6 to 26.0
Stabilization Target:
$11.68
(+26.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 5:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:19 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Austin J Shanfelter
SELL
90000 shares
2026-03-10
Quentin P Jr. Smith
SELL
10695 shares
2026-03-10
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Advanced ORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORN price and gamma walls.
