Orion Group (ORN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORN - Orion Group Holdings, Inc
$9.36
0.30 (3.31%)
â˛
5d:
+2.3%
30d:
-5.74%
90d:
-33.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ORN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.91
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.61
31.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORN is currently trading at $9.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.14 to $9.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.8) compared to its historical average (25.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.90, while resistance sits at $9.70. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.32 (+63.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $8.90, while resistance sits at $9.70. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 57/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.32 (+63.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$9.14 -
$9.93
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
33th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
75.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ORN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 33th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (57/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 63.6% below Wall St target ($15.32)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.14 -
$9.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$0.98
(10.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.90
Resistance Level
$9.70
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.80
Wall Street Target
$15.32
(+63.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-33.3%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.8 vs 25.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.73
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$8.15
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$7.60
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21â26)
$9.39
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.8, Growth: 77.4%)
$31.59
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 77.4%)
$30.64
(+227%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 77.4%)
$26.04
(+178%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.99 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.41
Bull Case
$11.30
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 24.1
Base Case
$9.36
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 23.0
Bear Case
$7.16
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.8 to 25.7
Stabilization Target:
$11.57
(+23.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 7:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced ORN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ORN price and gamma walls.
