Bank OZK (OZK) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$50.48
-0.29 (-0.57%)
âŧ
5d:
-2.53%
30d:
+11.98%
90d:
-3.37%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
0d
Protect OZK Gains
Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (41%)
Quality Score
46/100
Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
30-Day Fair Range
$45.39 â $51.03
Position: SLIGHTLY HIGH
Forward P/E & Valuation
8.3x
FAIR
vs 7.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$54.78
+8.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$50.07 / $53.06
Trend: Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: OZK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.7% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $51.33 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$54.48
Based on 3.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: OZK is currently trading at $50.48, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.39 to $51.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.3) is in line with its historical norms (7.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OZK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OZK scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, OZK is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $50.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: OZK scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$45.39 -
$51.03
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$45.39 -
$51.03
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support Level
$50.07
Resistance Level
$53.06
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding OZK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($54.78)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with -2.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.33
Wall Street Target
$54.78
(+8.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.7%
Profit Margin
43.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 7.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.84
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$53.24
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$54.68
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â8)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.54
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 2.3%)
$129.02
(+156%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 2.3%)
$54.12
(+7%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 2.3%)
$46.00
(-9%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.97
Bull Case
$56.69
(+12%)
Analyst growth 1.5%, PE expands to 9.4
Base Case
$51.53
(+2%)
Market implied 1.5%, PE stable at 8.5
Bear Case
$34.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (OZK)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Oct 27, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
The article discusses three dividend stocks, including Brown-Forman, as reliable income sources in a market flooded with growth capital. Brown-Forman, a spirits producer, generates steady cash flow from its Jack Daniel's portfolio.
Key Retail Themes:
dividend stocks
market flooded with growth capital
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 2:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:29 AM
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