Penumbra (PEN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$321.72
+0.26 (+0.08%)
▲
5d:
-0.23%
30d:
+0.53%
90d:
-1.54%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
BUY
HIGH Confidence (85%)
Quality Score
61/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$318.58 – $323.41
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
52.2x
FAIR
vs 55.1x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$362.54
+12.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$318.32 / $324.76
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PEN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$299.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$186.26
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PEN is currently trading at $321.72, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $318.58 to $323.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 52.2) is in line with its historical norms (55.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $318.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PEN scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $362.54 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PEN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $318.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PEN scores 73/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $362.54 (+12.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$318.58 -
$323.41
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$318.58 -
$323.41
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.36
(2.0%)
Support Level
$318.32
Resistance Level
$324.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (73/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($362.54)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 73/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
52.21
Wall Street Target
$362.54
(+12.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.5%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
52.2 vs 55.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$315.93
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$310.24
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$304.66
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 52→55)
$321.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 52.2, Growth: 25.6%)
$638.17
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 25.6%)
$242.73
(-25%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 25.6%)
$206.32
(-36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (56x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (52x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 55.56 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.79
Bull Case
$388.16
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 58.3
Base Case
$321.46
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 55.6
Bear Case
$245.92
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 50.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 52.2 to 55.1
Stabilization Target:
$339.50
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share PEN Analysis
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PEN)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 15, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits user expresses optimism about Penumbra Inc.'s ($PEN) earnings potential, buyback shares, and acquisitions despite market skepticism.
Key Retail Themes:
Buyback shares and acquisitions
Market skepticism
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 5:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PEN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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