Is PEN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, PEN is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: PEN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of PEN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for PEN to be between $317.46 and $321.66. The current price is $325.10.

What is the analyst price target for PEN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for PEN is $362.54. This implies a potential upside of 12.0% from current levels.

Penumbra (PEN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

PEN - Penumbra, Inc.

SURGICAL & MEDICAL INSTRUMENTS & APPARATUS

$325.10

1.54 (0.48%) ▲

5d: +1.21%

30d: +1.77%

90d: +2.0%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 12d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PEN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$298.53

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$185.36

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: PEN is currently trading at $325.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $317.46 to $321.66. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 52.8) is in line with its historical norms (55.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, PEN is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $317.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $362.54 (+12.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $317.46 - $321.66

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 58.5%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($362.54)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (55/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $317.46 - $321.66

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$16.09 (4.9%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $317.06

Resistance Level $325.39

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Oct 22, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 52.77

Wall Street Target $362.54 (+12.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.9%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -23.5%

Profit Margin 10.7%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 52.8 vs 55.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $318.38 (-2%)

2-Year Target $313.29 (-3%)

3-Year Target $308.28 (-5%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 53→55) $323.08 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 52.8, Growth: 27.4%) $668.89 (+107%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 27.4%) $251.75 (-22%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 27.4%) $213.99 (-34%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (56x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (53x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 55.56 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.82

Bull Case $390.70 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 58.3

Base Case $323.56 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 55.6

Bear Case $247.52 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 50.0

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 52.8 to 55.3

Stabilization Target: $339.09 (+4.8%)

PE Expansion Potential: +4.8%

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Last updated: October 22, 2026 3:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:01 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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