PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$9.17
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-4.78%
30d:
-3.27%
90d:
-7.28%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.90
23.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $9.17, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.30 to $9.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.6) is in line with its historical norms (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.29 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.29 (+23.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.30 -
$9.56
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.1% below Wall St target ($11.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.30 -
$9.56
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.15
Resistance Level
$9.72
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.61
Wall Street Target
$11.29
(+23.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.93
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$8.70
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$8.47
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$9.10
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 30.6%)
$62.32
(+580%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 30.6%)
$20.43
(+123%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 30.6%)
$17.37
(+89%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40
Bull Case
$9.99
(+9%)
Analyst growth -0.9%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$9.08
(-1%)
Market implied -0.9%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$6.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.85
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 4:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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