PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$10.04
0.10 (0.96%)
▲
5d:
-1.04%
30d:
-4.61%
90d:
-11.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PMT shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.15
23.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $10.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.04 to $10.46. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.7) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.11 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.11 (+21.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.04 -
$10.46
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 21.8% below Wall St target ($12.11)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.04 -
$10.46
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.86
Resistance Level
$10.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.67
Wall Street Target
$12.11
(+21.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.65
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$9.37
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$9.10
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$9.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.1%)
$65.06
(+555%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 26.1%)
$19.93
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 26.1%)
$16.94
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.16
Bull Case
$14.48
(+46%)
Analyst growth 28.4%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$13.17
(+33%)
Market implied 28.4%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$6.97
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.88
(+9.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 2:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Catherine A Lynch
BUY
1451 shares
2026-01-23
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