PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$6.84
-0.07 (-1.01%)
▼
5d:
-0.44%
30d:
-24.08%
90d:
-28.6%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
6d
Get Alerted When PMT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.79
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.67
41.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $6.84, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.14 to $8.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.61 (+55.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $6.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.61 (+55.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.14 -
$8.69
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.1% below Wall St target ($10.61)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.14 -
$8.69
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.70
Resistance Level
$7.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.96
Wall Street Target
$10.61
(+55.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 7.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.16
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$5.54
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$4.99
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$7.03
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 30.7%)
$61.09
(+793%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 30.7%)
$15.26
(+123%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: 30.7%)
$12.97
(+90%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.44
Bull Case
$7.28
(+6%)
Analyst growth -4.3%, PE expands to 5.3
Base Case
$6.62
(-3%)
Market implied -4.3%, PE stable at 4.8
Bear Case
$4.70
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 7.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.65
(+41.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+41.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 8:57 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:57 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 67 BUY |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
13 analysts |
$23 | 78 BUY |
|
STWD
Starwood Property Trust … |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$19 | 55 HOLD |
|
RWT
Redwood Trust Inc |
STRONG BUY
9 analysts |
$5 | 55 HOLD |
|
MITT
AG Mortgage Investment T… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$9 | 57 HOLD |
