PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$7.76
-0.12 (-1.52%)
▼
5d:
-8.17%
30d:
-16.02%
90d:
-28.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 20, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: PMT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$19.17
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.90
34.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $7.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.43 to $9.49. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (7.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.29 (+45.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.64. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $11.29 (+45.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.43 -
$9.49
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.4% below Wall St target ($11.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$8.43 -
$9.49
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.64
Resistance Level
$9.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.60
Wall Street Target
$11.29
(+45.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
24.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 7.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.18
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$6.64
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$6.14
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$7.79
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 30.6%)
$63.03
(+712%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 30.6%)
$17.29
(+123%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 30.6%)
$14.70
(+89%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.43
Bull Case
$8.41
(+8%)
Analyst growth -3.0%, PE expands to 6.1
Base Case
$7.64
(-2%)
Market implied -3.0%, PE stable at 5.5
Bear Case
$5.36
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 7.1
Stabilization Target:
$9.85
(+26.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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