PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PMT - PennyMac Mortgage Investment Trust
$10.18
-0.10 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
-6.61%
30d:
+3.25%
90d:
-14.38%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
14d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$21.18
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$13.15
22.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $10.18, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.96 to $10.76. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.86, while resistance sits at $10.60.
Market Sentiment: PMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.11 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $9.86, while resistance sits at $10.60.
Market Sentiment: PMT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.11 (+18.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$9.96 -
$10.76
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($12.11)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.6%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.96 -
$10.76
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.86
Resistance Level
$10.60
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.83
Wall Street Target
$12.11
(+18.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
21.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.98
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$9.78
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$9.58
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
$10.24
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 26.1%)
$65.06
(+539%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 26.1%)
$20.41
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 26.1%)
$17.35
(+70%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.12
Bull Case
$14.79
(+44%)
Analyst growth 33.0%, PE expands to 9.9
Base Case
$13.45
(+31%)
Market implied 33.0%, PE stable at 9.0
Bear Case
$6.87
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.88
(+6.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:40 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is PMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Catherine A Lynch
BUY
1451 shares
2026-01-23
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