PMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$7.49
-0.38 (-4.83%)
âŧ
5d:
-9.54%
30d:
+6.39%
90d:
-21.07%
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Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (45%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
FAIR
30-Day Fair Range
$6.97 â $7.90
Position: FAIR
Forward P/E & Valuation
5.6x
CHEAP
vs 6.9x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$9.75
+23.9% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$7.18 / $8.49
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: PMT is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -6.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.75
36.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PMT is currently trading at $7.49, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $6.97 to $7.90. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.17, while resistance sits at $8.49. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.75 (+23.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PMT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.17, while resistance sits at $8.49. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: PMT scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $9.75 (+23.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$6.97 -
$7.90
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
45.2%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$6.97 -
$7.90
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support Level
$7.18
Resistance Level
$8.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 10, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding PMT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($9.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.59
Wall Street Target
$9.75
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.0%
Profit Margin
21.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.34
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$6.85
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$6.39
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â7)
$7.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 35.1%)
$68.95
(+776%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 35.1%)
$19.40
(+147%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.8, Growth: 35.1%)
$16.49
(+110%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.48
Bull Case
$17.60
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.3
Base Case
$16.00
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$5.44
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$9.72
(+23.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.5%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (PMT)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Jul 23, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
PennyMac Mortgage ($PMT) is anticipated to report earnings growth in Q2 2026, with revenues expected to rise by 29.4%. The stock might react positively if the actual results surpass expectations.
Key Retail Themes:
earnings growth
revenue increase
positive stock reaction
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 1:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
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Sells
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