POOL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
POOL - Pool Corporation
$192.94
7.23 (3.89%)
▲
5d:
+4.51%
30d:
-12.09%
90d:
-7.28%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: POOL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: POOL trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$289.07
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$179.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: POOL is currently trading at $192.94, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $193.64 to $213.57. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (18.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $178.52, while resistance sits at $204.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $220.36 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, POOL is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $178.52, while resistance sits at $204.40. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $220.36 (+18.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$193.64 -
$213.57
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($220.36)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$193.64 -
$213.57
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$178.52
Resistance Level
$204.40
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.71
Wall Street Target
$220.36
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.2%
Profit Margin
7.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 18.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$175.87
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$166.55
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$157.72
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$185.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 7.5%)
$304.06
(+64%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 7.5%)
$230.47
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$195.90
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.89
Bull Case
$227.64
(+23%)
Analyst growth 8.5%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$206.95
(+11%)
Market implied 8.5%, PE stable at 17.5
Bear Case
$129.66
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.7 to 18.5
Stabilization Target:
$218.65
(+17.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is POOL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
De La Mesa Manuel J Perez
BUY
5000 shares
2026-03-13
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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