Qfin (QFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$8.47
0.00 (0.00%)
▲
5d:
-2.87%
30d:
-32.62%
90d:
-43.53%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: QFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: QFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.05
Based on 4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.24
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $8.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.10 to $12.89. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.4) is in line with its historical norms (0.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.81 (+74.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 55/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.81 (+74.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$9.10 -
$12.89
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 74.9% below Wall St target ($14.81)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.6% growth with -31.6% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$9.10 -
$12.89
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.35
Resistance Level
$9.17
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.41
Wall Street Target
$14.81
(+74.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.3%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.52
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$8.57
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$8.62
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.37
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 4.2%)
$469.25
(+5440%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 4.2%)
$9.59
(+13%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 4.2%)
$8.15
(-4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 1.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.30
Bull Case
$18.63
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.2
Base Case
$16.94
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.0
Bear Case
$5.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 14, 2026 6:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Xiaohuan Chen
BUY
190000 shares
2026-03-27
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