Qfin (QFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$5.26
-0.21 (-3.84%)
▼
5d:
-7.23%
30d:
-29.68%
90d:
-61.21%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 17, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: QFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: QFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.02
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.85
23.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $5.26, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.68 to $7.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.87 (+182.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.87 (+182.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.68 -
$7.67
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 182.7% below Wall St target ($14.87)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.68 -
$7.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.23
Resistance Level
$6.15
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.27
Wall Street Target
$14.87
(+182.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.3%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.3 vs 0.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.73
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$4.26
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$3.83
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$5.62
(+7%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 10.9%)
$522.20
(+9828%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$7.18
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.2, Growth: 10.9%)
$6.10
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (1x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 1.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.19
Bull Case
$12.03
(+129%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 1.4
Base Case
$10.94
(+108%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 1.3
Bear Case
$3.72
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.3 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$7.71
(+46.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+46.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 25, 2026 2:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:32 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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