QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$13.56
-0.30 (-2.16%)
▼
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
-11.2%
90d:
+1.35%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: QFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: QFIN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.26
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $13.56, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.85 to $15.09. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.4) is in line with its historical norms (0.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.71, while resistance sits at $14.06.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.92 (+58.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $12.71, while resistance sits at $14.06.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.92 (+58.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$12.85 -
$15.09
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
86.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.2% below Wall St target ($21.92)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with -16.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.85 -
$15.09
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.71
Resistance Level
$14.06
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.43
Wall Street Target
$21.92
(+58.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.3%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.14
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$14.42
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$14.71
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.54
(-2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 8.5%)
$845.35
(+5999%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 8.5%)
$17.72
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 8.5%)
$15.07
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.70
Bull Case
$30.54
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.7
Base Case
$27.76
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.4
Bear Case
$9.44
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 6:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Xiaohuan Chen
BUY
190000 shares
2026-03-27
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