Qfin (QFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$6.46
0.00 (-0.08%)
▼
5d:
-11.51%
30d:
-24.44%
90d:
-57.69%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: QFIN is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: QFIN is down 11.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.02
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.85
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $6.46, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.16 to $9.42. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.25, while resistance sits at $8.12.
Market Sentiment: QFIN scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.80 (+129.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.25, while resistance sits at $8.12.
Market Sentiment: QFIN scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.80 (+129.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.16 -
$9.42
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 129.1% below Wall St target ($14.80)
- WARNING: Composite score 42/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.16 -
$9.42
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.25
Resistance Level
$8.12
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.34
Wall Street Target
$14.80
(+129.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.3%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.3 vs 0.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.12
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$5.79
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$5.49
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$6.55
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 10.9%)
$536.40
(+8203%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$8.82
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$7.49
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (1x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 1.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.33
Bull Case
$14.22
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 1.6
Base Case
$12.93
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 1.5
Bear Case
$4.40
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.3 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$7.71
(+19.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 8:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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