QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$10.99
-0.58 (-5.05%)
▼
5d:
-7.96%
30d:
-16.68%
90d:
-5.67%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: QFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: QFIN shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.68
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $10.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.08 to $13.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.82 (+98.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: QFIN scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.82 (+98.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.08 -
$13.62
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 98.5% below Wall St target ($21.82)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.08 -
$13.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.85
Resistance Level
$13.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.35
Wall Street Target
$21.82
(+98.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.3%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.47
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.98
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$9.51
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$10.79
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.0%)
$787.81
(+7068%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 8.0%)
$13.85
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$11.78
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.73
Bull Case
$25.47
(+132%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.2
Base Case
$23.15
(+111%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.0
Bear Case
$7.87
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$12.47
(+13.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:16 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Xiaohuan Chen
BUY
190000 shares
2026-03-27
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