QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$12.91
0.64 (5.22%)
▲
5d:
-12.47%
30d:
-16.17%
90d:
-7.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 13, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: QFIN is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: QFIN is down 12.5% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$17.26
Based on 6.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.72
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $12.91, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.82 to $15.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 0.4) is in line with its historical norms (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.87 (+78.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.88. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.87 (+78.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.82 -
$15.78
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 78.2% below Wall St target ($21.87)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -12.5% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.82 -
$15.78
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.88
Resistance Level
$17.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.38
Wall Street Target
$21.87
(+78.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.3%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.4 vs 0.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.02
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$11.78
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$11.55
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
$12.01
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.5%)
$888.17
(+7139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.4, Growth: 8.5%)
$15.69
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.3, Growth: 8.5%)
$13.34
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (2x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.67
Bull Case
$28.16
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 2.5
Base Case
$25.60
(+109%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.3
Bear Case
$8.70
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.4 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$12.76
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 1:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Xiaohuan Chen
BUY
190000 shares
2026-03-27
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