QFIN
Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
Finance Services
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Qfin (QFIN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$5.31
+0.16 (+3.11%)
â˛
5d:
-4.84%
30d:
-8.76%
90d:
-55.53%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (84%)
Quality Score
49/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$5.27 â $5.97
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
0.3x
CHEAP
vs 0.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$14.29
+169.1% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$4.94 / $5.80
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: QFIN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -9.0% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.96
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.56
4.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $5.31, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.27 to $5.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 0.3) compared to its historical average (0.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.94, while resistance sits at $5.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.29 (+169.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $4.94, while resistance sits at $5.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.29 (+169.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$5.27 -
$5.97
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
84.3%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$5.27 -
$5.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level
$4.94
Resistance Level
$5.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 169.1% below Wall St target ($14.29)
- WARNING: Composite score 49/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.29
Wall Street Target
$14.29
(+169.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-31.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-74.3%
Profit Margin
22.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
0.3 vs 0.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.83
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$4.40
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$4.00
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0â0)
$5.47
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.6%)
$412.63
(+7671%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.3, Growth: 4.6%)
$6.08
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.2, Growth: 4.6%)
$5.17
(-3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (1x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 1.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.18
Bull Case
$11.33
(+113%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 1.4
Base Case
$10.30
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 1.2
Bear Case
$3.50
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 1.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 0.3 to 0.4
Stabilization Target:
$7.26
(+36.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.6%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (QFIN)
Bullish
1 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bullish
Last Tracked
Jan 28, 2022
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Reddit & WallStreetBets discussions on QFIN are bullish (sentiment score +0.23) across 1 tracked comments.
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 14, 2026 5:53 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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