QFIN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
QFIN - Qfin Holdings, Inc. American Depositary Shares
$15.29
0.09 (0.59%)
▲
5d:
-0.52%
30d:
+15.35%
90d:
+3.87%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 26, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: QFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: QFIN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.63
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.05
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: QFIN is currently trading at $15.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.36 to $15.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 0.5) compared to its historical average (0.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.31, while resistance sits at $17.25.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+45.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, QFIN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $11.31, while resistance sits at $17.25.
Market Sentiment: QFIN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.19 (+45.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.36 -
$15.07
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.1% below Wall St target ($22.19)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.9% growth with -16.7% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.36 -
$15.07
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.31
Resistance Level
$17.25
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
0.45
Wall Street Target
$22.19
(+45.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-43.3%
Profit Margin
27.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
0.5 vs 0.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.04
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$16.83
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$17.65
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 0→0)
PE COMPRESSION
$15.65
(+2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 17.8%)
$1214.41
(+7843%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 0.5, Growth: 17.8%)
$25.01
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.4, Growth: 17.8%)
$21.26
(+39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (3x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (0x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 2.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.70
Bull Case
$36.43
(+138%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 3.2
Base Case
$33.12
(+117%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 2.9
Bear Case
$11.26
(-26%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 2.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 05, 2026 8:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:10 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is QFIN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Xiaohuan Chen
BUY
190000 shares
2026-03-27
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