REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$10.06
0.13 (1.31%)
▲
5d:
-5.54%
30d:
-7.54%
90d:
-5.18%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REFI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REFI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.22
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.42
30.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $10.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.44 to $10.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.6) compared to its historical average (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.12 (+50.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.86. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI scores 28/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.12 (+50.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$10.44 -
$10.99
Company Quality Score
33/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (28/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.3% below Wall St target ($15.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 33/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.44 -
$10.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.86
Resistance Level
$11.16
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.57
Wall Street Target
$15.13
(+50.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Profit Margin
60.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.6 vs 6.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$9.51
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$8.98
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$8.49
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$10.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 36.4%)
$93.44
(+829%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.6, Growth: 36.4%)
$25.50
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.7, Growth: 36.4%)
$21.68
(+116%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.36
Bull Case
$14.51
(+44%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 8.0
Base Case
$13.19
(+31%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$6.75
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.6 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$11.92
(+18.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 1:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:39 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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