REFI
Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUSTS
Best REITs Stocks 2026 →
REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$8.80
+0.00 (+0.00%)
▲
5d:
-1.57%
30d:
-3.72%
90d:
-13.3%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (91%)
Quality Score
51/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$8.86 – $9.47
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
4.7x
CHEAP
vs 6.4x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$14.83
+68.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$8.59 / $9.30
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: REFI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.31
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.47
39.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $8.80, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.86 to $9.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.7) compared to its historical average (6.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.83 (+68.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: REFI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.83 (+68.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$8.86 -
$9.47
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$8.86 -
$9.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$8.59
Resistance Level
$9.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 68.6% below Wall St target ($14.83)
- WARNING: Composite score 51/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.71
Wall Street Target
$14.83
(+68.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-26.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.5%
Profit Margin
59.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.7 vs 6.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$7.16
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$6.46
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$8.78
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 35.5%)
$92.41
(+950%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.7, Growth: 35.5%)
$21.90
(+149%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.0, Growth: 35.5%)
$18.61
(+112%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.20
Bull Case
$15.08
(+71%)
Analyst growth 55.8%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$13.71
(+56%)
Market implied 55.8%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$5.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.7 to 6.4
Stabilization Target:
$11.97
(+36.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.0%
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Last updated: November 12, 2026 9:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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