REFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
REFI - Chicago Atlantic Real Estate Finance, Inc. Common Stock
$10.73
0.03 (0.28%)
â˛
5d:
-1.2%
30d:
+2.68%
90d:
-5.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: REFI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: REFI is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.7% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$23.57
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.64
26.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: REFI is currently trading at $10.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.28 to $10.85. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (6.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.12 (+41.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, REFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $10.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.12 (+41.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$10.28 -
$10.85
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 41.0% below Wall St target ($15.12)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.28 -
$10.85
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.59
Resistance Level
$11.03
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.94
Wall Street Target
$15.13
(+41.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Profit Margin
60.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 6.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.33
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$9.95
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$9.58
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6â7)
$10.81
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 36.4%)
$92.39
(+761%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 36.4%)
$27.20
(+154%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 36.4%)
$23.12
(+116%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.36
Bull Case
$15.64
(+46%)
Analyst growth 32.8%, PE expands to 8.7
Base Case
$14.21
(+33%)
Market implied 32.8%, PE stable at 7.9
Bear Case
$7.28
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 6.7
Stabilization Target:
$12.10
(+12.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 10:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is REFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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