Royal Gold (RGLD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGLD - Royal Gold Inc
$252.28
-1.70 (-0.67%)
âŧ
5d:
-4.75%
30d:
+8.34%
90d:
+23.32%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RGLD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: RGLD is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.0% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$442.70
Based on 13.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$274.88
8.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGLD is currently trading at $252.28, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $229.07 to $264.74. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.5) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $251.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RGLD scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $302.67 (+20.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $251.13. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RGLD scores 24/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $302.67 (+20.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$229.07 -
$264.74
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RGLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (24/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($302.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$229.07 -
$264.74
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
Âą$13.60
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$251.13
Resistance Level
$271.43
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.54
Wall Street Target
$302.67
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
115.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.3%
Profit Margin
48.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$257.33
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$262.47
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$267.72
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20â18)
PE COMPRESSION
$252.15
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 22.9%)
$483.24
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 22.9%)
$468.05
(+86%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 22.9%)
$397.84
(+58%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.03
Bull Case
$399.53
(+58%)
Analyst growth 43.0%, PE expands to 30.9
Base Case
$363.21
(+44%)
Market implied 43.0%, PE stable at 28.1
Bear Case
$172.71
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 10:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RGLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RGLD price and gamma walls.
