Royal Gold (RGLD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RGLD - Royal Gold Inc
$234.72
-7.28 (-3.01%)
▼
5d:
+0.74%
30d:
-7.14%
90d:
+16.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RGLD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: RGLD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$424.86
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$263.80
11.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGLD is currently trading at $234.72, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $231.92 to $249.15. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 19.2) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $223.02, while resistance sits at $243.74. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $308.83 (+27.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $223.02, while resistance sits at $243.74. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 48/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $308.83 (+27.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$231.92 -
$249.15
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RGLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (48/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.6% below Wall St target ($308.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (48/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$231.92 -
$249.15
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$12.32
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$223.02
Resistance Level
$243.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.20
Wall Street Target
$308.83
(+27.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
115.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.3%
Profit Margin
48.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
19.2 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$245.39
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$248.82
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$252.31
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→18)
PE COMPRESSION
$241.82
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 22.1%)
$455.87
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.2, Growth: 22.1%)
$440.67
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 22.1%)
$374.57
(+55%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.44 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.03
Bull Case
$366.66
(+52%)
Analyst growth 39.6%, PE expands to 29.1
Base Case
$333.33
(+38%)
Market implied 39.6%, PE stable at 26.4
Bear Case
$162.37
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 4:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RGLD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RGLD price and gamma walls.
