Royal Gold (RGLD) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$268.84
-5.73 (-2.09%)
▼
5d:
+9.25%
30d:
+15.13%
90d:
+18.97%
Open in Live Scanner
70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 11, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (22%)
Quality Score
43/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$226.72 – $250.14
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
21.1x
FAIR
vs 18.5x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$313.75
+16.7% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$225.23 / $283.99
Trend: Strong Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RGLD shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 9, 2026 at $283.88 · last confirmed Nov 9, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$402.35
Based on 11.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$249.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RGLD is currently trading at $268.84, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $226.72 to $250.14. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.1) compared to its historical average (18.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.23, while resistance sits at $283.99.
Market Sentiment: RGLD scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.75 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RGLD is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.23, while resistance sits at $283.99.
Market Sentiment: RGLD scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $313.75 (+16.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$226.72 -
$250.14
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$226.72 -
$250.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$225.23
Resistance Level
$283.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 11, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding RGLD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($313.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.14
Wall Street Target
$313.75
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
84.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
39.6%
Profit Margin
48.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$281.21
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$294.14
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$307.67
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$269.30
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.1, Growth: 18.9%)
$451.55
(+68%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 18.9%)
$424.29
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 18.9%)
$360.64
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.79
Bull Case
$403.96
(+47%)
Analyst growth 29.9%, PE expands to 31.8
Base Case
$367.24
(+34%)
Market implied 29.9%, PE stable at 28.9
Bear Case
$192.21
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (RGLD)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 1, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Gold miner $RGLD has maintained relative stability despite gold price declines, according to a bullish trader on StockTwits.
Key Retail Themes:
Gold price stability
Relative performance of $RGLD
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 11, 2026 5:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RGLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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