RJF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

RJF - Raymond James Financial, Inc.

SECURITY BROKERS, DEALERS & FLOTATION COMPANIES
$156.65
0.79 (0.51%) ▲
5d: +1.46%
30d: +3.01%
90d: +8.93%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
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Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026 28d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RJF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$235.18
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$146.03
Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: RJF is currently trading at $156.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $147.05 to $155.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 15.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, RJF is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $152.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: RJF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $174.00 (+11.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range $147.05 - $155.59
Company Quality Score 65/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 59.5%

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All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($174.00)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $147.05 - $155.59
Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $141.06
Resistance Level $152.52
Current Trend Downtrend
Technical data as of Jun 9, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 11.71
Wall Street Target $174.00 (+11.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 13.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 15.3%
Profit Margin 14.6%
Valuation Discount vs History -0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical 11.7 vs 11.8 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -0.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $156.18 (0%)
2-Year Target $155.71 (-1%)
3-Year Target $155.24 (-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 12→12) $156.39 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.7%) $417.26 (+166%)
Base: (SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 12.7%) $224.41 (+43%)
Bear: (PE: 10.0, Growth: 12.7%) $190.75 (+22%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.58
Bull Case $216.71 (+38%)
Analyst growth 26.4%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case $197.01 (+26%)
Market implied 26.4%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case $105.99 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.7 to 11.8
Stabilization Target: $157.81 (+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential: +0.7%
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Last updated: June 23, 2026 6:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:54 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-03-30
Bella Loykhter Allaire SELL 29551 shares 2026-03-19
Ro Khanna SELL 2026-01-29

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Advanced RJF Option Strategies

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