Is RUN stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, RUN is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: RUN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of RUN stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for RUN to be between $8.78 and $10.09. The current price is $8.82.

What is the analyst price target for RUN?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for RUN is $15.97. This implies a potential upside of 85.1% from current levels.

Sunrun (RUN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

RUN - Sunrun Inc

MISCELLANEOUS ELECTRICAL MACHINERY, EQUIPMENT & SUPPLIES

$8.83

0.19 (2.26%) ▲

5d: -1.18%

30d: -10.32%

90d: -29.68%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your RUN Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 3, 2026 at $8.93 · last confirmed Sep 10, 2026

Strength: 8.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RUN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -30.3%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$10.50

Based on -13.2% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$6.52

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $8.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $8.78 to $10.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.5) compared to its historical average (22.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 27.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $8.22, while resistance sits at $9.39.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $15.97 (+85.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $8.78 - $10.09

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 79.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 85.1% below Wall St target ($15.97)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (45/100) — watch for confirmation

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $8.78 - $10.09

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $8.22

Resistance Level $9.40

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 10, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 8.50

Wall Street Target $15.97 (+85.1%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 52.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) -60.7%

Profit Margin 11.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -27.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 8.5 vs 22.0 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -27.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $7.77 (-10%)

2-Year Target $6.99 (-19%)

3-Year Target $6.29 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 9→22) $16.28 (+89%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.2, Growth: -30.3%) $14.92 (+73%)

Base: (SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: -30.3%) $6.29 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 7.2, Growth: -30.3%) $5.35 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 6.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.40

Bull Case $7.02 (-19%)

Analyst growth -27.5%, PE expands to 6.9

Base Case $6.38 (-26%)

Market implied -27.5%, PE stable at 6.3

Bear Case $5.98 (-31%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.3

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.5 to 22.0

Stabilization Target: $22.33 (+158.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +158.7%

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Last updated: September 11, 2026 11:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is RUN showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Maria Barak SELL 8039 shares 2026-04-09

Danny Abajian SELL 132953 shares 2026-04-06

Jeanna Steele SELL 76478 shares 2026-04-06

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