Sunrun (RUN) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$7.62
0.05 (0.66%)
▲
5d:
+4.46%
30d:
-13.31%
90d:
-26.59%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
12d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 8, 2026 at $7.59 · last confirmed Oct 21, 2026
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RUN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -10.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1.35
Based on -29.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.84
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $7.62, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.41 to $8.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.7) compared to its historical average (20.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.78, while resistance sits at $7.86.
Market Sentiment: RUN scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.53 (+90.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $6.78, while resistance sits at $7.86.
Market Sentiment: RUN scores 88/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.53 (+90.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$7.41 -
$8.34
Company Quality Score
80/100
(STRONG BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (88/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 90.7% below Wall St target ($14.53)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 88/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.41 -
$8.34
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$6.78
Resistance Level
$7.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.69
Wall Street Target
$14.53
(+90.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.7%
Profit Margin
11.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 20.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.86
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$6.17
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$5.55
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→20)
$7.68
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: -62.9%)
$7.51
(+-1%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: -62.9%)
$5.55
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: -62.9%)
$4.72
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.48
Bull Case
$4.16
(-45%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 5.6
Base Case
$3.79
(-50%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 5.1
Bear Case
$5.15
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 20.3
Stabilization Target:
$10.53
(+38.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+38.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 22, 2026 6:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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