Redwood Trust (RWT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$3.55
-0.08 (-2.20%)
▼
5d:
-20.76%
30d:
-24.63%
90d:
-31.47%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
Get Alerted When RWT Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: RWT is down 20.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: RWT is down 20.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.61
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.73
24.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $3.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.27 to $4.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.3) compared to its historical average (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.22, while resistance sits at $4.67.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.84 (+64.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $3.22, while resistance sits at $4.67.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.84 (+64.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.27 -
$4.86
Company Quality Score
39/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RWT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.6% below Wall St target ($5.84)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.27 -
$4.86
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.22
Resistance Level
$4.67
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.27
Wall Street Target
$5.84
(+64.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.3 vs 5.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.19
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.88
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.59
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→6)
$4.43
(+25%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.2%)
$25.52
(+619%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.3, Growth: 5.2%)
$4.14
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.8, Growth: 5.2%)
$3.52
(-1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.3 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$6.08
(+71.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+71.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 2:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:06 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$13 | 59 HOLD |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 45 HOLD |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 39 SELL |
|
LADR
Ladder Capital Corp Clas… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$12 | 45 HOLD |
|
EFC
Ellington Financial Inc. |
STRONG BUY
8 analysts |
$15 | 43 HOLD |
Advanced RWT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RWT price and gamma walls.
