RWT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$5.07
-0.03 (-0.59%)
▼
5d:
+11.43%
30d:
-0.78%
90d:
-14.5%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
14d
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1 traders called RWT this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RWT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: RWT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.01
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $5.07, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.74 to $5.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.9) compared to its historical average (5.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.28 (+23.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $5.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RWT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $6.28 (+23.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.74 -
$5.22
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: Trading 23.9% below Wall St target ($6.28)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.74 -
$5.22
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$5.07
Resistance Level
$5.43
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.94
Wall Street Target
$6.28
(+23.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
-54.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.9 vs 5.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.78
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$4.50
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$4.24
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$5.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.5%)
$27.75
(+447%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.9, Growth: 7.5%)
$6.29
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.2, Growth: 7.5%)
$5.35
(+6%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.9 to 5.9
Stabilization Target:
$6.06
(+19.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 7:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RWT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RWT price and gamma walls.
