Redwood Trust (RWT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$2.85
-0.11 (-3.72%)
▼
5d:
-8.36%
30d:
-3.39%
90d:
-40.75%
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70/30 Portfolio Builder
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
0d
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Updated Nov 12, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (52%)
Quality Score
38/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$2.99 – $3.28
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
2.9x
CHEAP
vs 5.2x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$4.78
+67.6% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$2.69 / $3.30
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RWT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.54
Based on 13.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.92
51.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $2.85, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.99 to $3.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.9) compared to its historical average (5.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.69, while resistance sits at $3.30. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.78 (+67.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $2.69, while resistance sits at $3.30. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 21/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.78 (+67.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$2.99 -
$3.28
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$2.99 -
$3.28
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$2.69
Resistance Level
$3.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding RWT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (21/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 67.6% below Wall St target ($4.78)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.85
Wall Street Target
$4.78
(+67.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-76.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
-14.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.9 vs 5.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.56
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.31
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.08
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→5)
$3.80
(+33%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 22.1%)
$36.22
(+1171%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.8, Growth: 22.1%)
$5.19
(+82%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.4, Growth: 22.1%)
$4.41
(+55%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.8 to 5.2
Stabilization Target:
$5.21
(+82.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+82.7%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (RWT)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 4, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Redwood Trust reported a loss in Q3, but positive news came from their plans for a C-corporation conversion and preferred-for-common stock exchange offer. Traders on StockTwits express bullish sentiment towards the undervalued stock.
Key Retail Themes:
Redwood Trust's Q3 loss
Positive news from C-corporation conversion and preferred-for-common stock exchange offer
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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