Redwood Trust (RWT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RWT - Redwood Trust, Inc.
$3.53
-0.12 (-3.29%)
▼
5d:
-5.11%
30d:
-21.38%
90d:
-22.42%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RWT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: RWT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.47
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.64
23.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RWT is currently trading at $3.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.71 to $4.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.2) compared to its historical average (5.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 16.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.69 (+61.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RWT is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $3.52. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: RWT scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.69 (+61.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$3.71 -
$4.50
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
MODERATE
Confidence Score
47.6%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RWT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 61.2% below Wall St target ($5.69)
- WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.71 -
$4.50
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.53
Resistance Level
$4.16
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.25
Wall Street Target
$5.69
(+61.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-13.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-52.6%
Profit Margin
2.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-16.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.3 vs 5.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-16.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.18
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$2.86
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$2.57
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→6)
$4.35
(+23%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 5.2%)
$25.81
(+631%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.3, Growth: 5.2%)
$4.12
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.8, Growth: 5.2%)
$3.50
(-1%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.3 to 5.5
Stabilization Target:
$5.97
(+69.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+69.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 9:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RWT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced RWT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's RWT price and gamma walls.
